Bond Market vs Trump, Flash Ironmaking and Supermassive Black Holes

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Friday, 5:22 AM

January 17, 2025

Good morning news friend! Stay up to date with the latest developments, following the ever-changing flow of current events. 📰🌟

Bond Market vs Trump

The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio approaches 100%, double the figure from Bill Clinton's presidency. U.S. federal debt has surged to over $36 trillion, increasing by $2 trillion annually. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield hit a high of 4.79%, up from 2% in 2017.

Trump's proposal to extend $4 trillion in tax cuts is encountering skepticism from some Republicans. The budget deficit is projected to exceed $5 trillion over the next decade if tax cuts are extended.

Experts highlight that if the bond market reacts negatively to Trump's plans, interest rates could rise. Each 0.1% increase adds over $300 billion to national debt interest over ten years. Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent aims to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP.

Economists suggest that cuts in federal spending may be necessary. Without credible measures to reduce the deficit, the bond market might force Trump to reconsider his ambitious agenda.

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Will the bond market force changes to Trump’s economic plans?

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Bessent Treasury Nomination Hearings

Scott Bessent, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, appeared before the Senate Finance Committee. He emphasized the urgent need to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to avoid a tax increase on the middle class.

During the three-hour hearing, both Democrats and Republicans questioned Bessent about tax policy, tariffs, and sanctions against Russia. He supported aggressive sanctions on Russian oil and insisted on maintaining the IRS’s Direct File program for the 2025 tax season.

Democrats criticized the tax cuts for disproportionately benefiting the wealthy. Senator Elizabeth Warren challenged Bessent on his tax compliance, claiming he avoided paying about $1 million in taxes related to his hedge fund.

Bessent described extending the tax cuts as the most pressing economic issue, linking it to projected costs of $6 to $10 trillion over ten years if they are not renewed.

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Do you trust Scott Bessent to lead the Treasury Department effectively?

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Momentum Builds as US Retail Sales Rise

US retail sales rose by 0.4% in December, building on a revised 0.8% increase in November. Core retail sales, which exclude autos and gasoline, surged 0.7%. Retail sales grew by 3.9% year-over-year.

Auto dealership sales increased by 0.7%, while furniture store sales jumped 2.3%. Notably, sales at miscellaneous retailers soared by 4.3%.

Initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to 217,000, but continuing claims fell by 18,000 to 1.859 million. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% in December, with nonfarm payrolls seeing a gain of 256,000 jobs.

Economists anticipate consumer spending grew at a 3.3% annualized rate for the fourth quarter.

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Are rising retail sales a sign of economic strength?

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Flash Ironmaking

Chinese researchers developed an ironmaking method called flash ironmaking that completes the process in just three to six seconds. An improvement over the five to six hours needed by traditional blast furnaces.

This innovation represents a 3,600-fold increase in productivity. The flash method effectively uses low and medium-yield ores, which are abundant in China, reducing reliance on costly high-yield imports from Australia, Brazil, and Africa.

This method could enhance energy efficiency in China's steel sector by over one-third. By eliminating coal, it aims for near-zero carbon dioxide emissions.

The method is now in commercial production. The vortex lance is capable of injecting 450 tonnes of iron ore per hour and can produce 7.11 million tonnes of iron annually.

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Should other nations adopt China’s flash ironmaking technology?

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Child Labor Violations in Meatpacking Industry

Perdue Farms and JBS will pay $8 million for violating child labor laws. The US Labor Department found these companies used migrant children in dangerous jobs at slaughterhouses.

Investigators discovered the violations at a Perdue plant in Virginia as early as 2020. The children worked late hours and handled dangerous equipment, including electric knives.

Perdue will pay $4 million in restitution to the affected children and nonprofits like Kids in Need of Defense. Additionally, Perdue faces a $150,000 civil penalty.

This settlement is part of a larger effort by the Biden administration to crack down on child labor practices. Perdue Farms has stated that it disagrees with the liability for these violations but aims to resolve the matter without prolonged conflict.

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Should companies like Perdue be held criminally liable for child labor violations?

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Supermassive Black Holes 

Research suggests the universe harbors more supermassive black holes than previously thought. We may be missing 30% to 50% of these enormous entities, which can weigh millions or billions of suns.

Supermassive black holes feed on surrounding gas and dust, forming “cosmic donuts.” These structures can obscure at least 15% of black holes from view. Current data from NASA's NuSTAR spacecraft reveals many black holes hidden behind dust, which emits infrared radiation.

The deepest X-ray image of space shows 5,000 feeding supermassive black holes, but this number may reach 10,000 due to their obscured status.

Black holes significantly influence their host galaxies. When black holes overfeed, they can expel jets of material at 33% the speed of light, impeding star formation.

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Are we underestimating the role supermassive black holes play in shaping galaxies?

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