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4. The Role of the International Community

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Iran’s Compliance

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), established in 1970, aims to prevent nuclear weapons proliferation, promote peaceful nuclear technology, and achieve disarmament. With 190 signatories, including Iran, it remains one of the most widely endorsed arms control agreements. As a non-nuclear weapon state, Iran must not develop or acquire nuclear weapons and must subject its facilities to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards.

Iran’s nuclear program, dating to the 1960s, has drawn international scrutiny. Despite NPT commitments, Iran’s compliance has been questioned. In the early 2000s, evidence suggested undeclared activities, including uranium enrichment and heavy water production. These raised concerns about potential NPT violations.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) sought to address these concerns. Iran agreed to limit enrichment, reduce its uranium stockpile, and allow IAEA inspections in exchange for sanctions relief. This extended Iran’s nuclear breakout time to over a year.

However, the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and renewed sanctions led Iran to escalate uranium enrichment. By 2025, Iran enriched uranium to 60% purity—near weapons-grade—and exceeded JCPOA limits. Restrictions on IAEA access and unresolved issues over undeclared sites further heightened concerns.

The IAEA has struggled to monitor Iran’s program. Tehran restricted inspectors and reduced cooperation, hindering verification efforts. Reports of uranium traces at undeclared sites and high enrichment levels have strained relations. The IAEA has urged Iran to restore transparency.

Iran insists its nuclear activities are peaceful under Article IV of the NPT. Officials argue that external pressure and unmet JCPOA economic benefits justify their actions. Iran has also threatened to invoke Article X, allowing withdrawal under extraordinary circumstances. Such a move would undermine the NPT and escalate tensions.

The NPT remains crucial in addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Its effectiveness depends on robust verification, international cooperation, and commitment from all parties. Iran’s case underscores challenges in balancing non-proliferation with the right to peaceful nuclear energy.

Role of the IAEA: Inspections and Findings

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitors Iran’s nuclear compliance under the NPT. Using rigorous inspections, the agency ensures nuclear activities remain peaceful.

Inspections and Monitoring Mechanisms

The IAEA conducts on-site inspections, remote monitoring, and environmental sampling. These are supported by safeguards agreements and, when applicable, the Additional Protocol. Until 2021, the protocol allowed expanded access, enabling real-time verification. Iran’s suspension of it significantly reduced oversight.

Despite challenges, the IAEA carried out 3,000 field inspection days annually in Iran. Key sites include Fordow, Natanz, and Arak. Advanced technologies like surveillance cameras and tamper-proof seals help track nuclear material.

Findings and Challenges

By 2025, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile exceeded 5,500 kilograms, with significant quantities at 60% purity—far above the JCPOA’s 3.67% limit. In 2024, the IAEA detected uranium particles enriched to 84% at an undisclosed site, raising concerns over weapons-grade enrichment.

Unresolved questions about uranium traces at undeclared sites have worsened tensions. The IAEA has pressed for explanations, but Iran dismisses the inquiries as politically motivated.

Key Limitations

The IAEA’s oversight weakened after the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018. Iran reduced compliance and stopped sharing surveillance footage, eroding transparency. Limited monitoring agreements, such as those reached for Fordow in 2025, provide some oversight, but comprehensive verification remains elusive.

Impact on Non-Proliferation Efforts

Iran’s nuclear breakout time is now estimated at one to two weeks. This challenges non-proliferation efforts and highlights the IAEA’s constrained role in preventing nuclear escalation.

As Iran expands its program, international cooperation is critical. Strengthening oversight and ensuring adherence to safeguards are essential for global security.

UN Sanctions and Diplomatic Efforts

The international response to Iran’s nuclear program combines sanctions and diplomacy. Since 2006, the UN Security Council (UNSC) has passed resolutions restricting Iran’s arms trade, financial institutions, and access to nuclear-related technology. Resolution 1696 demanded Iran suspend uranium enrichment, followed by stricter measures under Resolutions 1737, 1747, 1803, and 1929.

The P5+1—comprising the U.S., UK, France, China, Russia, and Germany—led negotiations. This resulted in the 2015 JCPOA, which sought to curb Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)

Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to cut its uranium stockpile by 98%, cap enrichment at 3.67%, and allow intrusive IAEA inspections. These measures extended its breakout time from 2-3 months to over a year.

In return, sanctions were lifted, unfreezing billions in assets and reintegrating Iran into oil markets. The IAEA verified Iran’s compliance until the U.S. withdrew in 2018 under President Trump.

The Aftermath of the U.S. Withdrawal

The U.S. exit reignited tensions. Iran gradually abandoned JCPOA limits, enriching uranium to 20% and later 60%. By 2024, its stockpile exceeded 5,500 kilograms, with material near weapons-grade levels.

Efforts to revive the JCPOA have been difficult. The E3 (France, Germany, and the UK) continue mediation, but trust has eroded. Iran’s demand for full sanctions relief clashes with concerns over its missile program and regional activities.

Challenges and Path Forward

Sanctions remain a tool but are less effective without unified enforcement. China and Russia’s economic ties with Iran reduce their impact. Iran’s partnerships with these nations further complicate diplomatic leverage.

Diplomatic engagement is crucial. The risk of escalation—military conflict or nuclear advancement—demands sustained negotiations. A revised or expanded JCPOA framework could address sunset clauses and Iran’s missile program.

A unified global approach is essential. Combining sanctions, diplomacy, and regional engagement is key to preventing nuclear proliferation and ensuring stability.

Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️