Anna's Markets Recap

_{Just facts, you think for yourself}

Saturday, 5:23 AM

January 24, 2026

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

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What Moved Markets Last Week

The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,915.61, down 0.5% from the prior Friday. The Nasdaq eked out a 0.2% gain. Gold stole the show, rocketing to $4,986 per ounce—an 8% weekly surge and a fresh all-time high. A Wednesday rally rescued markets after President Trump called off tariff threats against Europe tied to the Greenland dispute. The Dow jumped 588 points that day alone. But Intel's 17% Friday crash on weak guidance dragged semiconductor stocks and dampened risk appetite heading into a packed earnings week.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment climbed to 56.4 in January, up 6.6% from December and the highest reading since August 2025. Still, sentiment sits 21.3% below January 2025 levels. Consumers expect 4.0% inflation over the next year, down from 4.2% in December.

Initial jobless claims held steady at 200,000 for the week ending January 17. The four-week moving average fell to 201,500, the lowest since January 2024. The labor market shows a "low firing, low hiring" pattern—payroll growth has narrowed sharply from the 200,000+ monthly pace seen in late 2024.

The Fed's Beige Book revealed companies are now passing tariff costs to customers after months of absorbing them. Eight of twelve Fed districts reported slight-to-modest activity gains. Markets price near-zero odds of a rate cut at the January 27-28 FOMC meeting. The next expected move: June at 45% probability.

Flash PMI data suggested annualized GDP growth of just 1.5% in January. Manufacturing PMI held at 51.9, with new orders rebounding but employment growth slowing to a six-month low.

Tech and Growth

Netflix (NFLX) delivered the week's headline event. Q4 earnings hit $0.56 per share versus $0.55 expected. Revenue reached $12.05 billion, up 18% year-over-year. The company guided 2026 revenue to $50.7-$51.7 billion and projected ad revenue to double from 2025's $1.5 billion. The $72 billion Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition announcement—amended to all-cash—paused share buybacks. The stock had already fallen 29% from October highs following the December deal announcement.

NVIDIA (NVDA) dropped approximately 4.1% for the week to around $179. Moody's upgraded the company to Aa1 credit rating. A $20 billion Groq licensing deal made headlines. But the stock has underperformed the Nasdaq over six months as China trade concerns persist. Friday brought relief: reports of China allowing orders for Nvidia's H200 AI chips pushed shares up 1.5%.

Intel's (INTC) Friday implosion—down 17%—rattled the sector. CEO Lip-Bu Tan warned of supply constraints and manufacturing problems. Q1 guidance came in at $11.7-$12.7 billion versus $12.51 billion expected, with breakeven EPS guidance. AMD gained 2.3% as the beneficiary trade.

Apple (AAPL) traded flat near $255, down 10% from its December all-time high of $286. The company confirmed a Google Gemini partnership for Siri's AI overhaul, expected in spring. January 29 earnings loom large.

Meta (META) bounced 5.4% on Thursday from two-month lows. The stock remains down 20% since October's Q3 report on concerns over $100 billion+ in 2026 capital expenditure. January 28 earnings will test whether sentiment turns.

Banks and Financials

The week's biggest financial story: a proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap effective January 20. The average card rate sits near 19.7-22.3%. Banks warned 90% of accounts could face closure.

JPMorgan (JPM) fell approximately 4-6% from its January 5 all-time high of $337.25 to trade around $303-$312. Q4 earnings on January 13 beat estimates—$5.23 EPS versus $4.86 expected—but the stock sold off on 2026 expense guidance of $105 billion, above Wall Street expectations. Equity trading surged 40%, driven by "AI-driven volatility." CEO Jamie Dimon cited "the most dangerous geopolitical conditions since WWII."

Bank of America (BAC) dropped 5-7% for the week to $51.72. Q4 EPS of $0.98 beat $0.96 estimates. Full-year net income reached $30.5 billion, up 13%. But 2026 NII growth guidance of just 5-7% disappointed investors expecting acceleration.

Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) initially plunged 4-5% on rate cap news before rebounding mid-week. Investors realized these companies earn transaction fees, not interest income. Their "toll road" business model decoupled them from bank stocks. Both ended the week down 3-6% from pre-crisis levels. Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan reaffirmed Buy ratings on Mastercard.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) slid 3-4% to $481.45. The company completed its $9.7 billion OxyChem acquisition on January 2. Cash reserves stand at a record $381.7 billion.

Consumer Goods and Healthcare

Eli Lilly (LLY) led healthcare with a 5.2% five-day gain, trading near $1,080. The FDA granted Breakthrough Therapy status for sofetabart mipitecan in ovarian cancer on January 21. CEO David Ricks announced production scaling has ended chronic Mounjaro and Zepbound shortages. Medicare Part D will cover weight-loss drugs starting April 2026, with Zepbound at $50/month copay. An earlier FDA delay on oral weight-loss pill Orforglipron had knocked shares down 4.5% on January 15.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) hit an all-time high of $220.11 on January 16. Q4 revenue of $24.56 billion beat estimates by $420 million. Full-year 2026 guidance of $99.5-$100.5 billion revenue exceeded analyst estimates. The company absorbed "hundreds of millions" in drug pricing concessions and expects $500 million in tariff impacts on medical devices.

Procter & Gamble (PG) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.88, beating $1.86 estimates. But management disclosed a $1 billion pretax tariff burden for fiscal 2026. Guidance cut full-year EPS growth to 1-6% from 3-9%. The beauty segment was the only division with positive volume growth at +3%.

Walmart (WMT) gained 3% on January 12 upon joining the Nasdaq-100. A Google partnership will deploy Gemini AI as a shopping assistant. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $135.

Energy and Industrials

Gold delivered a historic week. Spot prices surged from $4,666 to $4,986 per ounce—approaching $5,000 for the first time. Central banks bought 45 tonnes in November alone, with Poland leading 2025 purchases at 95 tonnes. China marked its 14th consecutive month of gold buying. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 8.8% since year-end 2024, boosting gold's appeal. Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 by December; HSBC sees $5,000 in the first half.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) hit an all-time high of $135.98 on January 23, gaining 4-5% for the week. JPMorgan raised its target to $133, Barclays to $140. Analysts see potential for Exxon to recover $2 billion in Venezuela arbitration claims following President Maduro's January 3 capture.

WTI crude fell modestly to $59 per barrel, pressured by IEA forecasts of a 3.7-3.8 million bpd surplus in 2026. U.S. inventories built 3.6 million barrels versus 1 million expected. Brent held near $64.

Home Depot (HD) climbed 4.5% over seven days to $383.77. TD Cowen raised its target to $450. Mortgage rates dipped to 6.09%, the lowest since 2024, supporting housing-related stocks. A new Chinese competitor, Vevor, opened its first U.S. store in Houston.

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Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️