In partnership with

Anna's Markets Recap

_{Just facts, you think for yourself}

Saturday, 5:12 AM

March 7, 2026

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

The Gmail app usually clips the bottom quarter of our emails, we recommend you reading our full article online here.

The week oil, war, and weak jobs shook Wall Street

A devastating confluence of geopolitical crisis, surging crude prices, and a shocking jobs miss sent U.S. equities tumbling during the week of March 2–6, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 2.0%, the Dow dropped 3.0% — its worst week in nearly a year — and the Nasdaq slid 1.2%. The U.S.–Israeli military strike on Iran, codenamed "Operation Epic Fury," upended global energy markets and revived stagflation fears not seen in years. WTI crude surged roughly 35% to above $90 per barrel, the largest single-week gain since oil futures trading began in 1983. Then on Friday, the February employment report delivered −92,000 nonfarm payrolls against expectations of +50,000, confirming that the labor market is deteriorating far faster than anyone expected. The three-month average payroll gain collapsed to under 6,000 per month.

Economic & Market Overview

Joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran began over the weekend of February 28–March 1, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering immediate Iranian retaliation across the Persian Gulf. Iran launched missile and drone strikes on targets in the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil trade flows — was effectively shut to commercial shipping.

Markets opened Monday with the Dow down 600 points at its intraday low before a dramatic recovery saw the S&P 500 finish flat at 6,881.62. Tuesday brought the real pain: the S&P hit −2.5% intraday and the Dow fell as much as 1,200 points before closing down 403 points at 48,501.27. A brief Wednesday respite saw the S&P recoup 0.78%, but Thursday's news of an Iranian tanker attack pushed WTI above $81 and sent the Dow plunging 784 points (−1.61%) to 47,954.74.

Friday was the capstone of a brutal week. The jobs report landed at 8:30 AM, oil broke above $90, and President Trump demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender," dashing hopes for a quick de-escalation. The S&P 500 closed at 6,740.02 (−1.33%), the Nasdaq at 22,387.68 (−1.59%), and the Dow at 47,501.55 (−453 points). The Russell 2000 suffered the sharpest damage, falling 2.39% on Friday alone. The VIX surged to 28.40, and over 70% of listed U.S. issues declined.

Jobs & Economic Data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' February employment report was the week's most consequential data release. Nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 — the consensus had called for a gain of 50,000, and January had posted a revised +126,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. December payrolls were revised down a stunning 65,000, from +48,000 to −17,000, meaning the economy has now lost jobs in three of the last five months.

Healthcare shed 28,000 jobs, largely due to a Kaiser Permanente strike. Manufacturing lost 12,000, construction 11,000, transportation and warehousing 11,000, information 11,000, and the federal government 10,000 — continuing a trend of −330,000 federal jobs since October 2024. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, both a tenth above forecast. The average duration of unemployment hit 25.7 weeks, the longest since December 2021.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4 on Monday — a second consecutive month of expansion — but the Prices Paid sub-index surged to 70.5, up 11.5 points, the highest since June 2022, driven by steel, aluminum, and tariff-related cost increases. The ISM Services PMI on Wednesday hit 56.1, the highest since July 2022. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker for Q1 2026 plunged from 3.0% to 2.1% during the week.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose from roughly 3.97% on February 27 to a peak of 4.17% on Friday — an increase of approximately 20 basis points, the largest weekly jump since April. The move was remarkable: oil-driven inflation fears and rising term premium overwhelmed safe-haven demand. Traders scaled back rate-cut expectations to just one 25-basis-point cut for the remainder of 2026.

On the trade front, 25% tariffs on Canadian imports took effect March 4. Auto imports from Canada were exempted on March 5, and USMCA-covered goods were exempted on March 6, both until April 2. An additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports also took effect March 4, bringing cumulative duties on Chinese goods to approximately 30%.

Technology & Growth

Apple (AAPL) delivered its biggest product launch week in years — seven products across three days — yet ended approximately 3–4% lower for the week as macro headwinds overwhelmed consumer excitement. Monday brought the iPhone 17e ($599, A19 chip, 256GB base) and M4 iPad Air. Tuesday saw the MacBook Air M5 and MacBook Pro M5 Pro/M5 Max with an 18-core CPU. Wednesday's showstopper was the MacBook Neo at $599 — Apple's cheapest laptop ever, powered by the A18 Pro. Pre-orders opened March 4 with availability March 11. Wedbush's Daniel Ives set a street-high $350 price target. Despite this, AAPL closed at roughly $257 on Friday, pressured by the broad risk-off selloff.

NVIDIA (NVDA) announced a $4 billion photonics investment on Monday — $2 billion each into Lumentum and Coherent — to develop advanced optics for next-generation AI data centers. Lumentum jumped 12% and Coherent gained 15% on the news, while NVDA rose approximately 3% to the $185 area on Monday. The company also reportedly paused H200 chip production for China amid export-approval uncertainty, redirecting TSMC capacity to its Vera Rubin architecture ahead of GTC 2026 on March 16. NVDA ended the week roughly flat, with its market cap at $4.46 trillion as of March 5.

Microsoft (MSFT) was the strongest Magnificent Seven performer through Thursday, climbing roughly 5% to $410.68 by the March 5 close before Friday's selloff pulled it back to the $404 area. Wedbush highlighted it as a top tech choice, and the company affirmed it would continue offering Anthropic technology to clients. At a White House event March 4, Microsoft's Brad Smith signed the Ratepayer Protection Pledge, committing data centers to supply their own power.

Amazon (AMZN) surged 3.88% on Wednesday to $216.82, buoyed by Anthropic-related AI optimism and an AI-enabled healthcare administration platform launch. However, Iranian drone strikes hit AWS data centers in Bahrain, triggering a multi-hour outage. The stock ended Friday around $213, roughly flat to slightly positive for the week.

Meta Platforms (META) signed a $50 million per year, three-year AI content licensing deal with News Corp on March 3–4, covering the Wall Street Journal and other properties. Separately, Arete Research downgraded Meta to Hold. The company's 2026 capex guidance remained at $115–$135 billion for AI infrastructure. META traded around $659 on Friday.

Alphabet (GOOGL) fell roughly 3–4% for the week, closing near $298 on Friday. A strategic CVS Health + Google Cloud AI partnership to personalize healthcare was announced. The Epic Games settlement saw Google lower Play Store commissions to 20%, allowing Fortnite's return to Google Play worldwide.

Broadcom (AVGO) reported Q1 FY2026 earnings after the close on Wednesday, March 4, and delivered numbers that briefly cut through the geopolitical gloom. Revenue hit $19.3 billion (+29% YoY), beating consensus of $19.18 billion. Non-GAAP EPS was $2.05 versus $2.03 expected. AI revenue surged 106% year-over-year to $8.4 billion. CEO Hock Tan projected AI chip revenue exceeding $100 billion in 2027. Q2 guidance of $22.0 billion crushed the $20.56 billion consensus by 7%. AVGO jumped approximately 5% on Thursday to $332, gaining roughly 4.4% for the week. Argus raised its price target to $425 from $375.

Salesforce (CRM) rallied 4.5% on Thursday to $201.41, as investors refocused on its Agentforce AI-agent platform traction following its late-February earnings beat (Q4 revenue $7.46 billion, +20% YoY). The company announced a Formula 1 AI Fan Agent partnership and a $50 billion share buyback program. CRM ended the week at approximately $202, up roughly 1.5%.

Netflix (NFLX) extended its February rally, gaining an estimated 3–4% for the week to close near $98.50 (post its 10:1 split). Momentum continued from the late-February decision to walk away from the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, paying a $2.8 billion breakup fee — a move investors praised as capital discipline. JPMorgan resumed coverage with an Overweight rating and $120 price target. Netflix also acquired Ben Affleck's AI filmmaking company, InterPositive, on March 6.

Tesla (TSLA) declined approximately 1.4% for the week to roughly $397, pressured by a looming NHTSA probe of its Full Self-Driving system with a safety data deadline of March 9. On a positive note, FSD surpassed 8.4 billion cumulative miles, with the fleet adding roughly 1 billion miles in the first 50 days of 2026. Robotaxi operations continued scaling in Austin without safety drivers.

Financial Institutions

The banking sector entered the week already bruised. The KBW Bank Index had fallen nearly 6% on February 27 on AI-related layoff fears after Block's Jack Dorsey cut 4,000+ employees.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) was the clear standout. After an initial 5% dip on Monday following disappointing Q4 earnings (operating earnings down 29.8% YoY to $10.2 billion, insurance underwriting down 54%), the stock rallied sharply when Berkshire disclosed on March 4 that it had resumed share repurchases for the first time since Q2 2024. On Thursday, CEO Greg Abel appeared on CNBC and revealed he had personally purchased $15.3 million in Berkshire stock — his entire after-tax 2026 salary — and committed to doing so annually. BRK.B jumped 2.65% to $500.40 on that news. Berkshire's cash hoard stood at $373.3 billion.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) fell roughly 4–5% to approximately $293, pressured by the sector-wide risk-off rotation. The bank announced plans to open 160+ new Chase branches across 30+ states in 2026. CEO Jamie Dimon maintained his "cautiously optimistic" outlook while warning about AI disruption.

Bank of America (BAC) slipped to roughly $49, with co-president Dean Athanasia executing a notable insider sale of 136,558 shares worth $6.85 million on March 5. BAC also announced redemption of $2.8 billion in senior notes.

Visa (V) proved relatively resilient, trading in a narrow $315–$322 range for the week. The company expanded its stablecoin-linked card partnership with Bridge, targeting 100+ countries by year-end.

Mastercard (MA) hovered between $510 and $525, buoyed by its landmark partnership with SoFi Technologies to enable SoFiUSD stablecoin settlement across its global payments network — the first stablecoin from an FDIC-insured bank on a public blockchain. Mastercard also completed Europe's first live end-to-end payment using an AI agent, in partnership with Santander.

Consumer Staples & Healthcare

Consumer staples and healthcare stocks were among the few pockets of strength as investors fled to defensive names. The Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) was up 9.39% YTD, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's 1.08% gain.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was a standout, trading near its 52-week high of $251.71 at approximately $247–249. The company earned two FDA catalysts in one week: Fast Track designation for nipocalimab in systemic lupus erythematosus on March 3, and FDA approval of the Tecvayli-Darzalex Faspro combination for multiple myeloma on March 5. JPMorgan raised its price target to $250 from $225. The stock has surged 58% since June 2025.

Costco (COST) reported Q2 FY2026 earnings after the close on March 5, beating on both lines: EPS $4.58 (vs. $4.54 consensus, +14% YoY) and revenue $69.60 billion (vs. $69.25 billion, +9.2% YoY). Membership fee income surged 13.6% YoY to $1.355 billion, with e-commerce sales up 22.6%. The stock's post-earnings reaction was muted, settling around $981 on Friday, down roughly 3% for the week as its premium ~50x P/E valuation left little room for error.

Eli Lilly (LLY) declined approximately 5–6% to $983, despite launching its "Employer Connect" platform to boost employer coverage of obesity drugs and completing the TRANSCEND-T2D-1 trial for its pipeline triple-agonist retatrutide. Pricing headwinds on Mounjaro and Zepbound weighed on sentiment, with competitor Novo Nordisk guiding for 5–13% top-line declines citing declining drug prices.

Walmart (WMT) held up relatively well at roughly $124 amid its defensive positioning, though the Walton family trust sold $136.45 million in stock across March 2–4 and Erste Group downgraded the stock to Hold on March 6.

AbbVie (ABBV) completed an $8 billion multi-tranche senior notes offering on March 4 with maturities spanning 2028 to 2066, while general counsel Perry Siatis sold $7.82 million in stock.

Procter & Gamble (PG) benefited from Citi's reiterated Buy rating but ended lower for the week near $152, as tariff concerns (an estimated $1 billion cost impact) offset its defensive appeal.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stabilized around $287–$289, continuing its recovery from a sharp January selloff.

Energy & Industrial

Exxon Mobil (XOM) hit a new 52-week high of $159.60 on Monday as oil prices spiked, but paradoxically pulled back through the week even as crude continued higher, closing near $152 — up roughly 3.3% for the week. WTI crude ended Friday above $90 per barrel, with Brent touching $92.93 intraday. The national average gasoline price jumped to $3.32 per gallon, the highest of 2026. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, energy analysts flagged the possibility of WTI reaching $100–$110 if the conflict extended through April.

Gold behaved counterintuitively. Spot prices spiked above $5,350 on Monday on safe-haven buying — well above the $5,000 level first breached in January — but then pulled back sharply as rising Treasury yields and margin calls in other assets triggered selling. Gold settled the week around $5,100–$5,130, down approximately 1.7% — its first weekly loss in five. Silver fared worse, dropping 9.63%.

Home Depot (HD) was the week's worst performer among tracked names, falling approximately 6.3% to roughly $357. Despite a solid late-February earnings beat (Q4 EPS $2.72 vs. $2.52 estimate) and multiple analyst price-target increases from Jefferies ($454), TD Cowen ($450), and UBS ($450), the stock was crushed by consumer uncertainty, housing market weakness, and surging energy costs. CFO Richard McPhail sold 2,550 shares worth $940,000 on March 4. HD broke below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

What this week signals going forward

This was a week that redefined the market's risk calculus. The combination of oil above $90, negative payrolls, ISM manufacturing prices at their highest since 2022, and Treasury yields rising despite economic weakness created a textbook stagflation signal — the scenario central banks are least equipped to handle.

Three dynamics bear watching. First, the Magnificent Seven underperformance is accelerating — all seven stocks were negative year-to-date through February, and only Broadcom's AI earnings offered a genuine bright spot this week. Second, the defensive rotation into consumer staples, healthcare, and energy is no longer a trickle but a flood, with the Dividend Aristocrats outperforming the S&P 500 by more than 8 percentage points YTD. Third, the labor market is weaker than headline figures suggest: with December revised to −17,000 and the three-month average under 6,000, the U.S. economy may already be shedding jobs on a trend basis.

The market's next inflection points are the March 11 CPI release, the March 13 GDP revision, and the March 17–18 FOMC decision — any one of which could redefine the trajectory of this deeply uncertain year.

We don’t take shortcuts, chase headlines, or push narratives. We just bring you the news, straight and fair. If you value that, click here to become a paid subscriber—your support makes all the difference.

Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️