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Anna's Markets Recap

_{Just facts, you think for yourself}

Saturday, 5:17 AM

March 29, 2025

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

Economic & Market Overview

Fresh data showed the U.S. economy still expanding: fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised up to an annualized 2.4%​, better than previously estimated.

The Conference Board’s March index of consumer confidence fell to 92.9, the lowest level since February 2021.

Inflation readings for February came in hotter than expected. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index climbed 0.4% for the month and 2.8% year-over-year, the largest monthly rise in core prices in over a year​.

Moreover, a survey of consumers showed short-term inflation expectations spiking to the highest in about 2½ years​.

The specter of a broader trade war weighed on businesses. Investors responded by seeking safe havens and adjusting interest rate bets.

Gold prices hit a record high by the end of the week​. It is up 17% year-to-date​.

Fed officials held the policy rate steady at their last meeting, but futures markets now imply a 75% chance of a rate cut by the June Fed meeting​.

In bond markets, the yield curve (the gap between long and short rates) has steepen to its widest in three years​, a signal that investors see higher inflation or risk premiums in the future even as they anticipate possible Fed easing.

Yet, it wasn’t all gloom: pockets of strength like the robust labor market (weekly jobless claims remained low​) and a resilient services sector suggest the economy is not stalling out.

Sources: Investopedia, Reuters, CNBC, Reuters[2].

Technology & Growth

Microsoft and Amazon advanced early in the week, buoyed by steady demand for cloud computing services. Apple’s stock climbed as well, with investors citing solid consumer demand for iPhones.

On Wednesday, President Trump’s pending auto tariff announcement sparked a broad tech selloff, erasing early gains​. Tesla and Nvidia both plunged over 5% that day.

Investor sentiment flipped to risk-off as fears grew that higher costs and supply chain disruptions could crimp growth.

By Friday, intensifying inflation data compounded the pressure on tech: Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft saw sharp one-day drops of 4.3%, 2.7%, and 3%, respectively​.

Sources: Reuters, Reuters[2].

Financial Institutions

Early in the week, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America enjoyed a slight boost as higher long-term rates hinted at improved lending margins.

By the end of the week, an index of interest-rate-sensitive bank stocks had fallen over 2%, reflecting caution about the economic outlook​.

Concerns that trade conflicts and inflation could dampen credit demand made investors more guarded on big lenders.

Visa got an extra mid-week boost – its stock jumped 2.5% after positive news from the cryptocurrency space suggested growing usage of Visa’s network for digital payments​.

Sources: Reuters, Reuters[2].

Consumer Staples & Healthcare

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is balancing two forces: on one hand, medical cost inflation and regulatory scrutiny in areas like Medicare Advantage; on the other, an expected 3.7% increase in Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates for 2025.

Walmart has been negotiating hard with suppliers to prevent tariff-driven cost increases from fully reaching consumers​.

Reports showed Walmart and others pushing back on vendors’ proposed price hikes for goods hit by new import tariffs, aiming to preserve market share by keeping prices affordable​.

Sources: Reuters.

Energy & Industrial

Crude oil prices rose for a third straight week, supported by a tightening global supply outlook and geopolitical factors​.

Reports that the U.S. government was pressuring exports from Iran and Venezuela contributed to expectations of lower supply, helping lift crude benchmarks.

By Friday, oil prices pulled back slightly on worries that escalating tariffs could slow global growth and curtail fuel consumption​.

Exxon also continued to highlight operational discipline and shareholder returns (through dividends and buybacks), factors that kept investors confident despite short-term volatility in oil.

Recent data showed U.S. home sales improving – for example, existing-home sales jumped 4.2% in February compared to the prior month​.

This uptick in housing activity can bode well for Home Depot, which benefits when homeowners and contractors spend more on building and renovation projects.

Sources: NAR, Reuters.

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Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️