Anna's Markets Recap

_{Just facts, you think for yourself}

Saturday, 5:07 AM

November 8, 2025

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

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What Moved Markets Last Week

The U.S. market closed the week of November 3-7 on uneasy ground, defined by a sharp pullback in technology and weak stabilization. The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 6,720.32, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite suffered its sharpest weekly loss since April, closing at 23,004.54 on Friday after a 1.9% drop on Thursday alone.

The primary driver of uncertainty was the ongoing federal government shutdown, which entered its 36th day. This created an "information fog" for investors, as no official October jobs report, Consumer Price Index (CPI), or third-quarter GDP estimate was released.

With no official guides, the market swung violently based on contradictory private-sector reports. On November 5, the ADP National Employment Report showed a surprise addition of 42,000 private-sector jobs, the first gain since July. This immediately sent market-implied odds of a December Federal Reserve rate cut plunging from over 90% to 64%.

This optimism was short-lived. On November 6, a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, the highest for that month since 2003. This news reversed the previous day's move, with traders re-pricing a 70.4% chance of a December cut. This reversal highlights a shift in market psychology: bad economic news is no longer seen as good news (for rate cuts) but as a genuine fear of recession.

As investors sold stocks, they bought government bonds in a flight to safety. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which moves opposite to its price, fell on Thursday from 4.16% to 4.09% in a direct reaction to the weak layoff report.

Confirming the bearish narrative, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for November plunged to 50.3, a three-year low. The survey director noted the drop was "widespread," with consumers expressing direct worries about the shutdown's negative economic consequences.

Tech and Growth

The market's anxiety was most visible in the technology sector, driven by renewed concerns that the AI-fueled rally had created lofty valuations.

• NVIDIA (NVDA) fell 3.7% on Thursday, hit by general AI valuation fears and a report that its CEO warned China could surpass the U.S. in the AI race. In a major structural event, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced NVIDIA would replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, effective November 8. This created a technical battle between "fast money" sellers and "slow money" index funds forced to buy.

• Tesla (TSLA) fell 3.5% on Thursday before its shareholder meeting. After the bell, the company announced shareholders had approved CEO Elon Musk's historic $1 trillion, 10-year compensation package. The stock remained weak, as the vote merely confirmed the existing long-term story rather than providing a new bullish catalyst.

• Netflix (NFLX) showed rare relative strength, holding onto gains from its October 30 announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split. The split is seen as making the stock more accessible to retail investors and, crucially, options traders, and investors appeared to be front-running this anticipated new demand.

• Other Tech Giants: The AI selloff hit most megacaps. Amazon (AMZN) fell 2.9% on Thursday, while Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) were also caught in the selloff. On November 7, Meta announced a new standalone WhatsApp app for the Apple Watch, though this was not a material price driver.

Banks and Financials

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) reported strong third-quarter earnings on November 1, in what was Warren Buffett's final report as CEO. Operating profit surged 34% to $13.5 billion, beating estimates. However, the real story was the company's cash hoard swelling to a new record of $381.7 billion. Berkshire was a net seller of stocks for the 12th consecutive quarter, a profound and bearish investment signal on market valuations.

• Bank of America (BAC) stock fell 1.8% on Wednesday, November 5, during its first major Investor Day in 14 years. Management unveiled new medium-term targets that the market saw as merely "in line with expectations." Investors who had bought the rumor in anticipation of the event sold the news.

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Consumer Goods and Healthcare

• Eli Lilly (LLY) was the week's star performer, finishing up 11% while the market fell. The rally was driven by a two-part maneuver. First, on November 3, Lilly announced a $3 billion investment in a new Netherlands facility to produce its oral GLP-1 pills. Second, on November 6, the White House announced a landmark pricing agreement with Lilly for its weight-loss drugs. Lilly cut its price in exchange for gaining Medicare coverage for the first time, a move the market recognized as a massive strategic victory, trading margin for a massive expansion in volume.

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose 0.52% on Thursday, driven by two major FDA approvals announced on November 6. The first approved DARZALEX FASPRO as the first-ever treatment for high-risk smoldering multiple myeloma. The second approved CAPLYTA as an add-on treatment for major depressive disorder. This positive pipeline news shielded the stock from the broader market selloff.

• Procter & Gamble (PG) stock hit a new 52-week low of $146.83 on November 4. The market ignored a positive earnings report from late October, focusing instead on significant insider selling from top executives, including the CEO and CFO.

• Costco (COST) reported its October sales results on November 5. Net sales rose 8.6%, and comparable sales rose 6.6%. Despite the strong headline numbers, the stock slipped 0.8% in after-hours trading, as the results merely met high "whisper" expectations.

Energy and Industrials

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) was a pocket of strength, with its stock climbing over 3% for the week. As investors fled speculative tech, they sought safety in "quality" and "value." XOM provided this narrative, having just hiked its dividend and, on November 4, announcing a major corporate restructuring to centralize operations and improve "execution excellence."

• Home Depot (HD) had no company-specific news and traded as a pure proxy for the U.S. consumer and housing market. The stock was weighed down by the record-low consumer sentiment report and layoff fears. The company only announced the date for its upcoming third-quarter earnings (November 18).

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Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️