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Anna's Markets Recap
Just facts, you think for yourself
Saturday, 5:15 AM
May 2, 2026
Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟
The Gmail app usually clips the bottom quarter of our emails, we recommend you reading our full article online here.
While you were arguing about inflation data, two of the most powerful people in DC just signaled a massive regime change. One just dumped a six-figure position in the homebuilding sector and clipped his wings on the AI trade. The other? He’s backing up the truck on local debt and complex derivatives.
This isn't a "rebalance." It’s a bunker strategy.
A key member of the House Financial Services Committee—the guys who literally write the rules for the banks—just liquidated a massive chunk of his personal portfolio. He’s out of motorcycles, out of restaurants, and more importantly, he’s hitting the "Sell" button on the semiconductor giant driving the entire S&P 500.
Meanwhile, a heavyweight on the Senate Banking Committee is moving millions into tax-sheltered "Safe Havens" and Goldman Sachs-managed structured notes.
The smart money is building a moat. Are you still standing in the line of fire?
High-Conviction Signals:
The AI De-Risk: A Financial Services insider just trimmed his position in the world's most important chipmaker. Does he know something about the next regulatory hammer?
The Housing Haze: $250K+ evaporated from a homebuilder stock by a member who sees the budget before you do. The "Higher for Longer" reality just hit home.
The Shadow Hedge: Why is a Senate Banking member hiding millions in municipal bonds and MSCI-linked notes right now? It's the ultimate "Bunker Position."
Stop reading the news. Start tracking the people who actually make the rules.
Economic & Market Overview
The S&P 500 closed Friday, May 1 at a fresh record 7,230.12, up roughly 0.9% on the week — its fifth straight weekly gain, the longest streak since October 2024. The Nasdaq Composite ended Friday at a record 25,114.44, up 0.89% on the day, capping its strongest month since April 2020 with an April gain of about 14%. The Dow finished at 49,499.27, down 152.87 points (-0.31%) Friday and lagging on the week.
The week's path was choppy. Monday delivered modest record-setting gains on Microsoft's announcement that it had ended its OpenAI revenue-share arrangement. Tuesday reversed sharply after a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI was missing internal revenue and user targets and that CFO Sarah Friar warned compute commitments may be unfunded; the S&P fell 0.49% to 7,138.80, the SMH semiconductor ETF dropped 3.9% intraday, and the Russell 2000 slid 1.2% on profit-taking. Wednesday traded mildly lower into the FOMC. Thursday, April 30 produced a Dow surge of nearly 790 points (~+1.6%) — every S&P sector finished green — driven by Alphabet's blowout cloud print and Caterpillar's AI-power infrastructure beat. Friday locked in records on Apple's earnings.
The FOMC kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% Wednesday, April 29 — Powell's last meeting as chair before his term expires May 15. The vote split 8–4, the largest dissent count since October 1992. Stephen Miran wanted a 25-bp cut; Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan supported the hold but objected to the statement's easing bias. The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh as the next chair earlier the same day. Powell will remain a Fed governor, denying President Trump a third Board appointee.
The macro print tape was loaded. Q1 GDP advance estimate (Thursday, April 30) came in at 2.0% annualized, missing 2.3% consensus but accelerating from Q4 2025's 0.5%. March headline PCE rose 0.7% m/m / 3.5% y/y — the largest monthly headline gain since 2022 — driven by the Iran-war oil spike that pushed gasoline above $4/gallon. Core PCE rose 0.3% m/m / 3.2% y/y, the highest core read since November 2023. Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 25 hit 189,000 — the lowest since 1969, undercutting the late-cycle weakening narrative. April Conference Board Consumer Confidence edged up to 92.8. Final April Michigan sentiment was revised to 49.8 — the lowest reading on record — with year-ahead inflation expectations spiking to 4.7%. April ISM Manufacturing held at 52.7 with prices paid at a four-year high.
Gold closed Thursday, April 30 at $4,653.69/oz, up 2.24% on the day, on dollar weakness and the inflation overshoot, then eased Friday to about $4,625.60. Brent crude spiked to a four-year intraday high of $126.41 overnight April 29–30 after the Trump administration vowed to maintain the Iran blockade, settled at $118.03 Wednesday, then reversed Friday as Iran reportedly forwarded a fresh ceasefire proposal — WTI ended Friday at $102.50, down 2.45%.
Technology & Growth
The week's defining theme: markets reward AI capex tied to revenue acceleration and punish capex without monetization. The four hyperscalers reporting Wednesday after the bell collectively guided to roughly $600 billion of 2026 AI capex.
Alphabet was the standout. Google Cloud revenue grew 63% y/y vs. 47% expected, with backlog nearly doubling to $460 billion. Search held resilient. Shares rose ~10% Thursday, April 30, capping a roughly 34% April gain — the best month since April of last year.
Microsoft beat with EPS $4.27 vs. $4.06, revenue $82.89B vs. $81.39B, and Azure +40%. But CFO Amy Hood's FY26 capex guide of $190 billion (+61% y/y) overwhelmed the $154.6B Visible Alpha consensus, citing $25 billion in higher memory costs. Shares fell ~4% Thursday, then recovered Friday to close at $414.44, +1.63%.
Meta beat with revenue $56.31B (+33%) and EPS $10.44 (+62%), but lifted full-year capex to $125–$145 billion. Reality Labs lost $4.03 billion. Shares fell ~7–9% in extended trading and through Thursday — a clean beat-and-raise reversed by the spend line.
Amazon posted AWS growth of 28% y/y — fastest in 13 quarters, 200 bps above estimates — but a $200 billion capex guide and cautious operating-income outlook tempered enthusiasm. Shares closed Thursday at $265.06, +0.77%.
Apple reported Thursday after the close: EPS $2.01 vs. $1.95, revenue $111.18B vs. $109.66B (+17% y/y), Services revenue $30.98B (+16%), record gross margin 49.3%, China revenue +28%. iPhone revenue rose 22% but missed marginally. Apple authorized $100 billion in additional buybacks and bumped the dividend 4%. Q3 gross-margin guidance of ~48% beat. CEO Tim Cook introduced incoming CEO John Ternus (effective Sept. 1). Shares closed Friday at $280.25, up 3.24%.
NVIDIA doesn't report until May 20 but briefly held above the $5 trillion market-cap threshold during the week. Tuesday's OpenAI shock dragged Nvidia, Broadcom (-4%), Oracle (-7%), and AMD lower; the names recovered with Alphabet's Thursday rally. Broadcom got a boost from Meta confirming MTIA Gen-2 production with it as ASIC partner. Tesla announced free Supercharging promotions; no fresh Salesforce or Netflix earnings.
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Financial Institutions
Visa beat Tuesday after the close: revenue $11.2B (+17% y/y) — fastest growth since 2022 — adjusted EPS $3.31 vs. $3.10, payments volume +9%, $7.9 billion in repurchases (largest ever), and a fresh $20 billion authorization. FY26 guidance was raised to low double-digit to low teens. Shares closed April 28 at $322.97, up 4.42% pre-print and rallied further after-hours.
Mastercard reported Thursday: adjusted EPS $4.60 vs. $4.41, revenue $8.4B (+16%). Despite the beat, shares fell ~4.4% Thursday premarket on softer April month-to-date cross-border travel — both Visa and Mastercard cited Iran-war travel headwinds. CFO Sachin Mehra assumes the conflict ends in Q2. Full-year guidance was lifted to low teens.
Berkshire Hathaway entered its Saturday May 2 annual meeting with shares down 5%+ YTD versus S&P +4%, trailing the index by 30+ percentage points since Buffett signaled retirement last May. This is the first meeting with Greg Abel as CEO; Buffett (95) attends but won't preside. Abel disclosed buying Berkshire shares with his entire $15 million post-tax salary. JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America had no major catalysts; the Fed's hold and steeper short-end pressured net interest margin trades.
Consumer Staples & Healthcare
Eli Lilly delivered the week's best mega-cap print Thursday, April 30: revenue $19.80B (+56% y/y) vs. $17.62B; non-GAAP EPS $8.55 vs. $6.85 — a 24.8% beat. Mounjaro rose 125% to $8.66B. Full-year revenue guidance was raised by $2 billion to $82–$85B; EPS guidance to $35.50–$37.00. The FDA approved Foundayo (orforglipron), the first oral GLP-1 with no food/water restrictions. Shares closed +4.54% at $974.39 — the +10% intraday pop faded as bullish positioning had front-run the print.
AbbVie reported Wednesday: adjusted EPS $2.65 vs. $2.59, revenue $15.0B (+12.4%). Skyrizi grew 30.9% to $4.48B; Rinvoq grew 23.3%. Guidance was lifted to $14.08–$14.28. Despite the beat-and-raise, shares fell ~4.25% premarket and slid 2.23% on the day on a $0.41/share IPR&D charge and acquisition chatter.
UnitedHealth added Goldman's U.S. Conviction List during the period (Q1 was reported April 21). P&G, JNJ, Costco, and Walmart had no earnings in-window. Coca-Cola jumped ~4% Tuesday on its beat; Domino's fell 10.5% Monday on a Q1 miss; UPS dropped 5% Tuesday despite top-and-bottom-line beats — a 2.3% domestic-volume slip dominated focus.
Energy & Industrial
Exxon Mobil reported Friday, May 1: GAAP EPS $1.00, adjusted EPS $1.16 vs. $1.20 (a marginal miss), revenue $85.14B vs. $83.09B (beat). Net income fell 45% y/y to $4.2 billion despite oil's surge, with Kazakhstan drone attacks, Permian storms, and Middle East logistics dragging Upstream. Achieved first LNG at Golden Pass Train 1 in March; declared a $1.03 Q2 dividend. Shares fell more than 1% Friday as crude reversed lower. Chevron beat with adjusted EPS $1.41 vs. $0.95 — biggest beat since October 2020 — but also slid more than 1%, signaling investors are now trading the forward commodity tape.
Caterpillar reported Thursday: revenue $17.4B (+22% y/y) vs. $16.49B; adjusted EPS $5.54 vs. $4.62 — a 20% beat. Construction segment +38%, power and energy +22%. Backlog hit a record $63 billion (+79% y/y). The print recast CAT as an AI-infrastructure pick-and-shovel play through data-center power generation. Shares jumped roughly 5–6% premarket and finished close to 9.5% higher, leading the Dow's Thursday rally. Tariff hit was trimmed to $2.2–$2.4 billion from $2.6 billion. Home Depot had no earnings; traded with cyclicals.
Reversals to Watch
Brent crude topped $126 then reversed to $102.50 on Iran's proposal. Microsoft beat earnings but fell ~4% Thursday on capex shock, then recovered +1.63% Friday. Mastercard beat but fell on April-month-softness commentary. The AI complex was crushed Tuesday on the OpenAI report, then rallied Thursday on Alphabet's print. The S&P 500's forward 12-month P/E sits at 20.9 — fully valued but supported by the strongest blended Q1 earnings growth since Q4 2021. April nonfarm payrolls drop Friday, May 8.
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Baked with love,
Anna Eisenberg ❤️