Anna's Markets Recap

_{Just facts, you think for yourself}

Saturday, 5:09 AM

February 28, 2026

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

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The week Wall Street questioned the AI trade

The S&P 500 fell 0.44% between February 20 and February 27, 2026. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.95%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.31%, closing at 48,977.92 on Friday. A Supreme Court tariff ruling, a historic NVIDIA earnings beat that triggered a selloff, record-hot wholesale inflation, and a seismic Netflix deal reversal made this the most eventful week of the year.

The week opened with the Supreme Court's 6-3 decision striking down Trump's IEEPA-based reciprocal tariffs on February 20. Trump responded over the weekend by announcing a 15% global tariff under Section 122, enacted at 10% on February 24. NVIDIA crushed earnings on February 25 and still lost 5.5% the next day. The January PPI report on February 27 printed 0.5% headline and 0.8% core — both far above the 0.3% consensus — and sent stocks, bonds, and rate-cut expectations into a tailspin.

The macro picture flashed stagflation warnings

Q4 2025 GDP came in at 1.4% annualized, released February 20, missing the 2.5% consensus. The government shutdown shaved a full percentage point off the print. Full-year 2025 GDP landed at 2.2%, down from 2.4% in 2024.

The January PPI report on February 27 was the week's biggest shock. Headline producer prices rose 0.5% month-over-month. Core PPI surged 0.8%, the hottest reading in over a year, against expectations of 0.3%. Markets sold off hard on the data as stagflation fears — weak growth paired with sticky inflation — gripped traders.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21 came in at 212,000, below the 215,000 estimate. Continuing claims dropped 31,000 to 1.833 million. The labor market held firm despite headwinds from AI-driven displacement and tariff uncertainty.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in February, up 2.2 points. The Expectations Index hit 72.0, still below the 80 threshold tied to recession risk. The University of Michigan final February consumer sentiment reading printed at 56.6, down from the preliminary 57.3 but above January's 56.4. One-year inflation expectations fell to 3.4% from 4.0%.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 11 basis points over the week, from 4.08% to 3.97%. The yield broke below 4% on Friday for the first time in months as investors fled to safety despite the hot PPI print. The 2-year yield sank to 3.389%, its lowest since August 2022. Fed funds remained at 3.50%–3.75%, and the CME FedWatch tool showed a 96.1% probability of no change at the March FOMC meeting.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller called a March rate cut a "coin flip" at the NABE conference on February 23. He flagged that 2025 payroll data would likely be revised below zero — zero net job growth in an expanding economy, a first in modern history. Fed Governor Lisa Cook warned on February 24 that AI-driven unemployment may require policy responses beyond rate cuts. Markets now price two rate cuts in 2026, with the first pushed back to July.

Technology & Growth

NVIDIA beat everything and still fell 10% in two days

NVIDIA reported fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after the close on February 25. Revenue hit $68.13 billion, beating the $66.21 billion estimate by $1.92 billion. Adjusted EPS landed at $1.62 versus $1.53 expected. Data center revenue reached a record $62.3 billion, up 75% year-over-year and comprising 91% of total sales.

Fiscal Q1 guidance of $78 billion blew past the $72.8 billion consensus. Gross margins held at 75.2%. Jensen Huang noted the data center business scaled 13x since ChatGPT launched. First Vera Rubin chip samples shipped to customers during the quarter.

The stock closed at $195.56 on February 25, up 1.4% ahead of the report. It opened lower on February 26 and closed at $184.89, down 5.46% — the worst single-day drop since April. On February 27 the selloff continued to a close of $177.19, down another 4.16%. From February 20 to February 27, NVIDIA lost roughly 7%.

The "sell the news" reaction reflected extreme expectations baked into the stock. NVIDIA carried $50 billion in short interest — the largest in the S&P 500. The Meta-AMD deal announced on February 24 raised questions about customer concentration. Investors entered "prove it" mode on AI capex sustainability, and the hot PPI print on Friday accelerated the decline.

JP Morgan raised its price target to $265 from $250 and maintained Overweight. NVIDIA also committed $30 billion to OpenAI's $110 billion financing round at a $730 billion pre-money valuation.

Apple held steady as the Magnificent Seven fractured

Apple closed at $264.18 on February 27, down 3.21% from $272.95 the prior day but roughly flat for the full week. The stock gained 1.75% on February 23, bucking the broad selloff that day. Apple led the Magnificent 7 higher on February 24 with a roughly 2.3% gain.

Apple's patient AI strategy insulated it from the AI bubble narrative hammering peers. The iPhone and iPad received NATO clearance for classified information — a first for consumer devices. Tim Cook teased a product launch on social media. IDC projected a 13% decline in global smartphone shipments for 2026 due to memory shortages.

Microsoft was the week's worst Magnificent Seven performer. MSFT fell roughly 3.2% on February 23 alone as AI disruption fears hit software stocks. It closed near $394 on February 27, down an estimated 5–6% for the week. The stock sat roughly 17–18% below its January 1 open. Microsoft was absent from OpenAI's $110 billion financing round, in which Amazon invested $50 billion and NVIDIA $30 billion. Piper Sandler downgraded the tech sector from Overweight to Neutral during the week.

Amazon closed near $208–209 on February 27, roughly flat for the week. The company announced a $200 billion capex plan for 2026 focused on AI infrastructure with Trainium and Inferentia processors. Amazon committed $50 billion to OpenAI's financing round. Morgan Stanley projected negative free cash flow of $17 billion for 2026 due to the infrastructure buildout.

Meta Platforms closed near $648 on February 27, down 2–3% for the week. The headline event was the $100 billion multi-year deal with AMD announced February 24, deploying 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs. AMD surged 8.8% on that news. Meta simultaneously expanded its multi-year NVIDIA partnership for Blackwell and Rubin GPUs, and inked a deal with Alphabet to rent Google TPU chips. Total AI infrastructure spending is targeted at $135 billion in 2026 across 30 data centers. Meta declared a $0.525 dividend with a March 16 ex-date.

Alphabet drifted lower while Tesla lost a third program manager

Alphabet closed near $307–312 on February 27, down an estimated 1.5–3% for the week. Google Cloud accelerated to 48% year-over-year growth in Q4 2025 — the standout segment from its early-February earnings report. The Meta TPU rental deal validated Google's custom silicon strategy. Belgium's competition watchdog opened a probe into Google's ad pricing practices on February 27. President Capital raised its price target to $375. South Korea approved Google's bid to export high-precision map data.

Tesla closed near $400 on February 27, down roughly 2.5–3% from its February 20 close of $411.82. The stock posted its third weekly loss in four weeks. Victor Nechita, the Cybercab Vehicle Program Manager, departed on February 26 — the third vehicle program manager to leave since November 2025. Tesla now has zero original program managers across its production or upcoming vehicle lines.

The first Cybercab rolled off the Giga Texas production line on February 17. Volume production targets April. Tesla holds no commercial robotaxi permits in any major market. A U.S. judge ruled Tesla must face a lawsuit alleging anti-American hiring bias. Morgan Stanley cut its price target to $415 from $425. The consensus analyst view sits at Hold with an average target near $395.

Salesforce posted its best quarter in two years

Salesforce reported fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after the February 25 close. Revenue hit $11.20 billion, up 12% year-over-year — the fastest growth rate in two years. Adjusted EPS landed at $3.81 versus the $3.04 estimate, a 25% beat. Operating cash flow surged 37.6% to $5.46 billion.

Agentforce reached $800 million in ARR, up 169% year-over-year. The company authorized a record $50 billion share buyback. CEO Marc Benioff dismissed the "software apocalypse" narrative and raised the fiscal 2030 revenue target to $63 billion from $60 billion. CRM closed at $199.47 on February 26, up 4.03%, after trading in a massive $183.75–$201.04 intraday range.

The stock gave back some gains on February 27, settling near $197. For the week, CRM gained 5–7%. Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $45.8–46.2 billion met but did not exceed the $46.06 billion consensus, which tempered some of the bullishness. Baird lowered its target to $250 from $315 but maintained Outperform.

Netflix surged 14% after walking away from Warner Bros.

Netflix closed at $96.24 on February 27, up 13.77% from the prior day's $84.59 close. This was the week's largest single-stock move among the names tracked. Volume exploded to 88.18 million shares versus the 47 million average.

The catalyst: Netflix withdrew its $83 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming assets on February 26. Paramount Skydance had raised its rival bid for all of WBD to $31 per share. The WBD board declared Paramount's offer a "Superior Proposal." Netflix declined to counter.

Co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters called the deal a "nice to have at the right price, not a must have at any price." The stock had been depressed for weeks under the weight of the acquisition overhang. The withdrawal removed a major risk factor and unlocked a relief rally. Huber Research upgraded Netflix to Overweight. Paramount agreed to pay a $2.8 billion breakup fee. Netflix also announced a partnership with Apple to air the Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix.

Broadcom shipped the first 2nm AI chip — and still fell

Broadcom closed near $319–320 on February 27, down 4–5% for the week from its February 20 close of $334.58. The stock fell 3.19% on February 26 alone as the NVIDIA post-earnings selloff dragged the entire semiconductor sector lower. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 3.2% that day.

Broadcom shipped the industry's first 2nm custom compute chip on its 3.5D XDSiP platform to Fujitsu, using TSMC's N2 process. The chip delivers 10–15% higher performance or 25–30% lower power versus 3nm. VP Harish Bharadwaj told Reuters the company expects to sell at least 1 million 3D-stacked chips by 2027. AI chip revenue doubled year-over-year to $8.2 billion in the most recent quarter.

Wolfe Research raised its target to $400 and upgraded to Buy. Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings are scheduled for March 4, with $19.1 billion in revenue guidance. Customers include Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, ByteDance, Meta, and Fujitsu for custom AI ASICs.

Financial Institutions

Berkshire prepared for the post-Buffett era

Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares closed near $505 on February 27, roughly flat for the week. The stock outperformed the broader financial sector, which fell more than 3% on February 23 alone. Berkshire's diversified, non-tech business model served as a defensive anchor.

Investors braced for the first-ever annual shareholder letter from CEO Greg Abel, expected February 28, following Warren Buffett's retirement on December 31, 2025. Q4 earnings were due the same day with estimated EPS of $8,186 for Class A shares. The company's cash pile stood at roughly $380 billion. Todd Combs departed for JPMorgan, leaving Ted Weschler as the sole investment manager. Berkshire sold additional Apple and Bank of America shares in Q4 and started a new position in The New York Times.

JPMorgan fell 5–8% on tariff fears and inflation data

JPMorgan closed near $299 on February 27, down an estimated 5–8% from its pre-selloff level near $318–322. The stock dropped over 3% on February 23 with the broader financial sector. Friday's 4.72% plunge in Bank of America signaled the sector's sensitivity to the hot PPI data.

JPMorgan held its annual Company Update on February 23. Management raised firmwide NII guidance to roughly $104.5 billion including markets revenue. Core NII excluding markets rose to $95 billion from $92.6 billion in 2025. Technology spending increased 10% to $19.8 billion. Jamie Dimon warned of pre-2008 parallels in some credit markets and expressed "heightened anxiety" about the economy.

The firm filed an $80 billion universal debt shelf in February. The Citrini Research report published over the weekend — warning that AI agents and stablecoins could disrupt payment networks — added to pressure on the financial sector. Blue Owl Capital fell 20% on a redemption halt, sparking private credit contagion fears.

Visa and Mastercard took the AI disruption narrative head-on

Visa closed near $316–320 on February 27, down 3–5% for the week. Mastercard closed near $515–517, down 4–5%. Mastercard fell roughly 6% on February 23 — the sharpest single-day drop among payment names.

The Citrini Research report was the primary catalyst. The 7,000-word analysis warned that AI agents could reroute transactions from card networks to stablecoin rails on Solana and Ethereum Layer 2 networks, gutting interchange economics. Trump's proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap added regulatory uncertainty. The Credit Card Competition Act remains a legislative risk, with analysts estimating a 6–9% revenue impact on Mastercard if passed.

Both stocks recovered mid-week. Visa completed its acquisition of Argentine payment platforms Prisma and Newpay on February 27. Mastercard announced a partnership with Ericsson integrating its Fintech Platform with Mastercard Move for telecom money movement. Cross-border transaction growth remained strong for both companies.

Bank of America closed at $49.83 on February 27, down 4.72% on the day and down 1.2% for the week from its February 20 close of $50.41. BAC is the most rate-sensitive of the major banks. The hot PPI reading directly threatened the rate-cut timeline that supports its NII outlook. Berkshire Hathaway continued selling BAC shares in Q4 2025, creating a persistent overhang.

Consumer Staples & Healthcare

Eli Lilly cemented GLP-1 dominance after Novo stumbled

Eli Lilly traded near $1,025–1,037 on February 27, up 1–2% for the week. The stock surged roughly 4% in pre-market on February 23 after Novo Nordisk's CagriSema Phase 3 trial failed its primary endpoint. CagriSema achieved 23% weight loss versus tirzepatide's 25.5% over 84 weeks. Novo fell 15–16% on the news while Lilly's Zepbound and Mounjaro held their position as the clear market leaders in obesity treatment.

Novo Nordisk announced 50% U.S. list price cuts for Wegovy and Ozempic on February 24. RBC Capital initiated coverage of Lilly at Outperform with a $1,250 price target, citing oral GLP-1 candidate orforglipron as a growth catalyst.

AbbVie closed near $224.69 on February 27, up 0.2% for the week. The FDA approved the combination therapy of Venclexta and acalabrutinib for untreated CLL. AbbVie advanced ABBV-8736 into Phase 1 for obesity and metabolic diseases, entering the weight-loss market. Skyrizi and Rinvoq continue to replace Humira revenue.

UnitedHealth Group traded near $282 on February 27, down roughly 1–2% for the week and still reeling from its January 27 crash. CMS proposed a 0.09% 2027 rate increase for Medicare Advantage plans, far below the 4–6% the industry expected. The company declared a $2.21 dividend on February 25. Shares trade at 16–17x projected earnings, well below historical averages, with a consensus target near $365.

Consumer staples led Friday's defensive rotation

Walmart closed at $127.95 on February 27, up 2.84% on the day. The stock gained 2–3% for the full week. Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings, reported February 19, showed revenue of $190.66 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.74 versus the $0.73 estimate. U.S. e-commerce grew 27% year-over-year and turned profitable for the first time. Walmart Connect advertising revenue surged 41%. The company authorized a $30 billion buyback. Fiscal 2027 EPS guidance of $2.75–2.85 disappointed against the $2.96 estimate.

Costco closed at $1,010.79 on February 27, up 2.44% on the day and up roughly 3.2% for the week. The stock benefited from defensive rotation and anticipation of Q2 earnings on March 5. Costco is pursuing refunds on tariffs deemed illegal after the Supreme Court ruling.

Procter & Gamble gained roughly 3–4% for the week, benefiting from rotation into dividend stocks. PG rose about 1.5% on February 27 as investors fled growth. The company presented at the CAGNY conference on February 19 and launched Tide evo, a fiber-detergent product. PG expects roughly $1 billion in tariff-related cost increases.

Johnson & Johnson hit an all-time high of $246.96 on February 19 and held near $245 through the week, down 0.4%. JNJ went ex-dividend on February 24 at $1.30 per share. Bloomberg reported big buyout firms circling the company's orthopedics unit. JNJ announced a $1 billion cell therapy facility in Pennsylvania as part of a $55 billion U.S. investment plan through 2029.

Energy & Industrial

Oil stayed elevated on Iran tensions while gold surged

Exxon Mobil held flat near $136 for the week. WTI crude traded around $66.70–$67.00. U.S.-Iran tensions were the primary driver: Trump threatened limited military strikes over Iran's nuclear program, and the U.S. embassy in Lebanon evacuated staff. Oil pulled back mid-week as talks in Oman were announced, then re-accelerated as negotiations stalled. BMO Capital raised its XOM price target to $155 from $125.

Home Depot reported Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings on February 24. Adjusted EPS hit $2.72, beating the $2.54 estimate by 7.09%. Comparable sales turned positive at 0.4% after several quarters of contraction. The stock rose roughly 2.5–4% for the week to approximately $387. Mortgage rates dipped below 6% for the first time since late 2022, signaling a potential housing market thaw. Multiple analysts raised price targets, with Robert W. Baird setting a $430 target.

Gold surged roughly 3.7–4.1% for the week, rising from approximately $5,040 per ounce on February 20 to $5,226–5,247 on February 27. Tariff uncertainty, falling Treasury yields, U.S.-Iran geopolitical risk, and Friday's stagflation signal all drove the rally. Central banks purchased roughly 863 tonnes of gold in 2025 and maintained a similar pace into 2026. JPMorgan raised its year-end 2026 gold target to $6,300 per ounce. Gold's all-time high of $5,595.42, set January 28, remained intact.

Record buybacks, sector rotation, and the AI reckoning

February 2026 produced $233.3 billion in corporate buyback authorizations — the largest February on record and the third-largest month ever. Salesforce led with $50 billion, followed by Walmart at $30 billion and Verizon at $25 billion. Over 200 companies authorized repurchases.

The dominant market narrative was rotation from growth to value. The Magnificent Seven fell roughly 6% year-to-date through February while consumer staples and energy outperformed. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF lost nearly 10% in February alone. The VIX rose from 17.93 on February 25 to above 21 on February 27.

The week exposed a critical tension in the AI trade. NVIDIA posted the best earnings in tech and lost $18 per share in two days. Block laid off over 4,000 employees — roughly half its workforce — fueling fears that AI is already displacing jobs faster than markets anticipated. CoreWeave fell 20% on disappointing guidance. Dell surged 21.9% on record AI server demand. The market is no longer rewarding AI investment on faith. It demands proof.

What this week signals going forward

The market split into two camps. Growth investors face a world where the best AI quarter in history triggers a selloff. Value investors found comfort in consumer staples, buybacks, and dividend-paying defensives.

The 10-year yield breaking below 4% despite hot inflation data reveals a bond market pricing recession risk over inflation risk. Gold above $5,200 confirms the safe-haven bid. The Fed sits paralyzed between conflicting signals. Treasury yields, gold, and equities moved in the same direction — down, up, and down — which happens when markets fear the economy is slowing into inflation.

Netflix walking away from an $83 billion deal and rallying 14% sent a clear message: capital discipline matters more than empire-building. Salesforce's $50 billion buyback and Walmart's $30 billion authorization reinforce that cash return is the new growth story. February 2026's record buyback month is not a coincidence. Companies are telling the market they believe their own stock is cheap.

The week ended with more questions than answers. Whether the AI capex cycle sustains, whether tariffs trigger a trade war, and whether inflation re-accelerates will define March. The next catalysts are Broadcom earnings on March 4, Costco on March 5, and the February jobs report on March 6. The market needs proof. This week showed it is no longer willing to pay on promise alone.

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Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️