Anna's Markets Recap

_{Just facts, you think for yourself}

Saturday, 5:15 AM

June 28, 2025

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

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What Moved Markets Last Week

The week of June 23-27 was defined by a dramatic reversal from risk-off to risk-on sentiment. Markets initially reacted to weekend geopolitical tensions, with U.S. military action in Iran sending crude oil to $75 per barrel and gold toward $3,400 an ounce. However, by Tuesday, news of a ceasefire agreement triggered a powerful rally. This rapid de-escalation cleared the path for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to roar to new all-time highs by Friday’s close. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 3.8%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 4.25%.

Economic data fueled the rally through a "bad news is good news" lens. On Thursday, the final estimate for first-quarter GDP revealed a 0.5% annualized contraction, worse than the 0.2% previously estimated. Investors interpreted this weakness as a clear signal that the Federal Reserve would be forced to cut interest rates, despite conflicting data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, released Friday, showed the annual core rate rose to 2.7%, slightly hotter than the 2.6% forecast.

Markets largely dismissed hawkish testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who stated there was "no rush to cut rates." Instead, investors focused on the weak GDP print, sending the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down from 4.34% to 4.26% during the week. The CME FedWatch Tool ended the week showing a 92% probability of at least one rate cut by September.

Tech and Growth

The technology sector was the primary engine of the market's rally, with the Nasdaq Composite posting its best week since mid-May, driven by AI optimism and the prospect of lower interest rates.

NVIDIA (NVDA) had a standout week, reclaiming its title as the world's most valuable company with a market cap of $3.78 trillion. The stock’s rally was fueled by relentless AI enthusiasm, with Wedbush analysts forecasting a potential $5 trillion valuation by 2026.

Microsoft (MSFT) surged to a new record high of $497.05, with Wedbush raising its price target to $600, citing strong adoption of its Copilot AI assistant.

Tesla (TSLA) jumped over 9% on Monday following the launch of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, validating a key part of its long-term AI growth narrative for bullish investors.

Meta Platforms (META) scored a major legal victory after a federal judge dismissed a copyright lawsuit related to training its AI models, removing a significant legal overhang.

Broadcom (AVGO) traded near a 52-week high, but the positive momentum was tempered by a notable insider sale on Wednesday, when Director Henry Samueli sold over 473,000 shares for $125.7 million.

Apple (AAPL) underperformed its peers, weighed down by a class-action lawsuit alleging the company made misleading statements about its ability to integrate advanced AI features into the upcoming iPhone 16.

Banks and Financials

The financial sector benefited from the broad market rally and positive news from the Federal Reserve's annual stress tests. On Friday, the Fed announced that all 22 major banks tested had passed, confirming they were sufficiently capitalized to withstand a severe recession. This clears the way for shareholder capital returns. However, the 2025 test was viewed as less strenuous than in prior years and notably excluded direct exposure to the private credit market.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) announced on June 27 that Warren Buffett would donate over $6 billion worth of Class B shares to five charitable foundations. Analysis also highlighted that Buffett has not repurchased any Berkshire stock in three quarters, signaling his view that the stock's valuation is too high.

Visa (V) & Mastercard (MA) were subjects of analysis regarding the threat from stablecoins. The consensus view this week was that the threat is overstated in the near term due to the card networks' powerful network effects and consumer rewards programs.

Consumer Goods and Healthcare

Defensive sectors saw performance driven by company-specific news.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) took decisive action on Monday, recommending shareholders reject an unsolicited "mini-tender" offer from Tutanota LLC that was structured at a below-market price. The company also paid its quarterly dividend on June 24.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) announced the U.S. launch of its new VOLT Plating Systems for fractures. However, the stock remains burdened by over 60,000 lawsuits related to its talcum powder products, creating a significant legal overhang.

Walmart (WMT) opened its first-ever company-owned and operated case-ready beef facility in Kansas on Friday, a strategic move to control costs and ensure quality amid high food inflation.

Costco (COST) announced plans to open its first standalone gas station in California, experimenting with a new format to capture more member spending on fuel.

Energy and Industrials

This sector’s performance was tied to commodity volatility and the economic outlook.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) served as a clear barometer for geopolitical risk. The stock fell sharply on Monday as oil prices retreated following the Iran ceasefire news, and its performance was tightly correlated with crude prices throughout the week.

Home Depot (HD) had a strong week, with its performance highlighting a resilient business model. Despite a weak housing market, demand for smaller, necessity-driven projects and repairs—the "maintenance economy"—continues to provide a stable revenue stream.

Commodities

Commodity markets reflected the week's geopolitical arc. Gold began as a safe-haven asset, closing at $3,368 per ounce on Monday before selling off to $3,274 by Friday as risk appetite returned. Crude oil followed a similar path, with its brief spike to $75 a barrel collapsing back to around $65 once the threat of a wider conflict subsided.

Did you know we also write in-depth deep dives? They are long, packed with insights, and have received rave reviews. If you’re up for a detailed, action-packed read, check them out:

• The Stablecoin Trilemma - Bridging Digital Finance, Monetary Policy, and Systemic Risk

• Deconstructing the $66 Billion Citiadel Enigma

• The U.S. Debt Trajectory, Assessing the Risks of a $36 Trillion Liability

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Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️