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Anna's Markets Recap

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Saturday, 5:18 AM

March 21, 2026

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

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Economic & Market Overview

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,506.48, down 1.51%. The Nasdaq fell 2.01% to 21,647.61. The Dow shed 444 points to 45,577.47. All three logged their fourth straight weekly loss — the longest streak in over a year. The Russell 2000 dropped 2.3% on Friday and became the first major U.S. index to enter correction territory.

Three forces drove the selling: war, inflation, and options expiration.

Iran struck energy infrastructure in Qatar and Kuwait. Iraq declared force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Brent crude topped $112 on Friday, up nearly 9% for the week. U.S. crude settled at $98.32. CBS reported Friday the U.S. is preparing to potentially deploy ground forces into Iran.

The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% on Wednesday. The dot plot still projects one cut in 2026 — unchanged from December — but the Fed raised its inflation outlook to 2.7% on both headline and core PCE. Chair Powell said the bar for cutting rates is now higher. The Dow dropped 768 points on Wednesday as he spoke.

Hours before the Fed decision, February's PPI landed hot. Producer prices rose 0.7% month-over-month, more than double the 0.3% forecast. Year-over-year PPI hit 3.4%, the highest in a year. Goods prices surged 1.1%, with fresh vegetables up 48.9%. Pipeline inflation is running hotter than expected — and this data doesn't yet reflect the energy shock.

Thursday's jobless claims came in at 205,000, down from 213,000. The labor market holds a "low hire, low fire" posture. Friday's triple witching — quarterly expiration of stock options, index futures, and index options — amplified the selloff through forced delta hedging.

By Friday's close, financials (+0.19%) and energy (+0.01%) were the only two S&P 500 sectors in the green. Technology fell over 2%. Utilities dropped over 4%.

Gold crashed. After spiking to $5,423 on the Hormuz headlines, gold reversed and fell 6.6% on Thursday alone, hitting $4,700. It closed Friday around $4,507 — its biggest weekly loss since 1983, down over 10% in five sessions. A surging dollar (DXY at 100.50), rising real yields, and equity margin calls forced leveraged traders to sell their most liquid asset. Physical premiums stayed elevated — the paper market and the metal told opposite stories. J.P. Morgan held its year-end target at $6,300. Goldman Sachs held at $6,000. Both called it a positioning flush, not a fundamental shift.

The 10-year Treasury yield ended around 4.33%. Traders now price a 50% chance of a rate hike by October.

Technology & Growth

The tech sector took the heaviest damage. In the Nasdaq-100, Constellation Energy fell 10.9%, Western Digital 7.5%, Seagate 5.4%, and Micron 4.8%.

NVIDIA (NVDA) hosted GTC 2026 in San Jose (March 16–19). CEO Jensen Huang projected $1 trillion in Blackwell and Vera Rubin purchase orders through 2027 — double the $500 billion target from October. He unveiled the Vera Rubin platform (seven chips, five rack-scale systems for agentic AI), the Groq 3 LPU from the $20 billion Groq acquisition (shipping Q3), the Kyber rack architecture, Space-1 for orbital data centers, and the NemoClaw agent platform. Goldman Sachs maintained "Buy." Wells Fargo kept "Overweight" at $265.

NVDA rose 2% Monday to $184.27 on the keynote but fell 3.17% Friday in the broad selloff. The stock trades at 17x forward earnings — below the S&P 500 average — with 54 of 57 analysts at Buy. Two senators questioned whether the Groq deal was structured to dodge antitrust review. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plunged over 25% Friday after its co-founder was charged with smuggling Nvidia chips to China, dragging the entire semiconductor sector.

Apple (AAPL) traded around $248.96. CEO Tim Cook visited Chengdu on March 18 for Apple's 50th anniversary. iPhone sales in China surged 23% in the first nine weeks of 2026 (per Counterpoint), while the broader Chinese smartphone market fell 4%. Greater China revenue hit $25.5 billion last quarter, up 38%. Apple cut its App Store commission in mainland China from 30% to 25% effective March 15 following regulatory pressure. Beijing called Apple's practices "monopolistic" and pushed for more concessions.

Microsoft (MSFT) closed around $389, down 1.64% Friday and 18% year-to-date — the worst Mag Seven performer. Azure became the first cloud provider to validate NVIDIA's Vera Rubin NVL72 system. The company announced Copilot Cowork, a $0.91 dividend, and an AI organization shake-up. January's earnings reaction and the software rotation continue to weigh.

Tesla (TSLA) fell 3.18% to $380.30, its lowest since September 2025. The Uber-Rivian robotaxi deal announced Thursday — up to 50,000 vehicles across 25 cities — introduced a direct threat to Tesla's Cybercab, expected to start production in April. Musk said the "Terafab" chip project launches in seven days and signed a $16.5 billion deal with Samsung for AI6 chips on 2nm. China-made vehicle sales rebounded in early 2026.

Meta (META) dropped 2.11% Friday. The company plans to cut over 20% of its workforce as it pivots from VR to AI, while maintaining $115–$135 billion in 2026 capex — a number that keeps investors uneasy.

Amazon (AMZN) fell 1.49% to $208.77. Reports surfaced of a new smartphone project codenamed "Transformer," focused on AI-powered personal assistance and Alexa integration.

Salesforce (CRM) dropped 1.94%, the worst Dow performer. Netflix (NFLX) fell 3.13% to $91.74. Neither had company-specific catalysts — both were caught in the risk-off sweep.

Financial Institutions

Financials were the week's sole bright spot.

On Thursday, the Fed, FDIC, and OCC jointly proposed easing capital requirements for banks of all sizes. The changes would streamline Basel III rules, reduce the G-SIB surcharge, and tweak stress tests. Tier 1 capital requirements would fall 3.8% for the largest banks and up to 7.8% for smaller ones. The proposals could free up billions for lending, buybacks, and dividends. Comments are open through June 18.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) traded around $283, down 11% from its January high of $337.25. The capital easing benefits JPM directly. The bank projects $104.5 billion in net interest income for 2026 and is spending $20 billion on technology this year.

Visa (V) gained 0.65% and Mastercard (MA) rose 1.26% Friday. Both benefit from rising gasoline prices boosting payment volumes at the pump, and their fee-based models insulate them from direct credit risk.

The math for banks shifted this week: elevated rates support net interest income, and capital rule easing adds regulatory tailwind. The risk is that a war-driven recession erodes loan demand and consumer credit quality before those tailwinds fully materialize.

Consumer Staples & Healthcare: The Safe Harbors

Eli Lilly (LLY) attracted defensive capital as investors rotated out of tech. The obesity drug pipeline — Mounjaro, Zepbound, and Phase 3 candidates orforglipron and retatrutide — remains the growth engine.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) rose 1.67% Friday. Management is raising premiums and exiting unprofitable Medicare Advantage markets, a process expected to shed up to 1 million members but improve margins.

Energy & Industrial

Exxon Mobil (XOM) hit an all-time closing high of $158.81 on March 17 and traded near $160.31 on Friday, up 1.36% and 38% over the past year. Mizuho raised its target to $162 from $140 on March 17, citing a 14% increase in its 2026 oil price outlook. Piper Sandler raised to $186. A new Guyana floating production facility is nearly complete. A Saudi Aramco-Exxon refinery in Yanbu was reportedly targeted.

Iraq's force majeure, attacks on Qatar and Kuwait infrastructure, and the Strait of Hormuz disruption keep tightening supply. If the conflict escalates further, oil has room to run well beyond current levels.

What to Watch

The triple witching overhang has cleared. The underlying forces haven't. Inflation runs hot, the Fed won't cut, and energy prices are rewriting margins and consumer budgets. Any Middle East de-escalation triggers a relief rally. Any escalation pushes the broader market into correction. For gold, watch the dollar and real yields — if they ease, the metal finds a floor.

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Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️

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