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Anna's Markets Recap

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Saturday, 5:18 AM

April 4, 2026

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

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Economic & Market Overview

The week of March 30–April 2 delivered the S&P 500's first weekly gain since the Iran war began—rising 3.4%—but the rally masked extraordinary intraday violence driven by ceasefire headlines, a surprise pharmaceutical tariff, and a Tesla delivery miss. The Nasdaq surged 4.4% and the Dow added 3.0%.

Monday opened with caution as WTI crude topped $104/barrel and the VIX spiked above 30. The S&P 500 slipped 0.39% to 6,343.72. Fed Chair Powell declared rates are "in a good place" and that the Fed would "look through" the oil supply shock—crushing rate-hike probability from above 50% to just 2.2%.

Tuesday produced the week's defining move. Reports that Iran's president was open to ending the war ignited the best single-day rally since May. The S&P 500 leapt 2.91% to 6,528.52, the Nasdaq rocketed 3.83%, and the Dow gained 2.49%. Despite the euphoria, the S&P 500 still closed March down roughly 5.1% and Q1 down 7.33%.

Wednesday extended gains modestly (+0.72% S&P). But that evening, Trump delivered a televised address vowing to continue attacking Iran for several more weeks—shattering the fragile ceasefire narrative.

Thursday opened to chaos. The Dow plunged as much as 668 points before clawing back to close at 46,504.67 (−0.13%). The S&P 500 finished at 6,582.69 (+0.11%) and the Nasdaq at 21,879.18 (+0.18%). Late-day recovery came on reports that Iran and Oman were developing a Strait of Hormuz monitoring protocol.

The March jobs report (released Good Friday with markets closed) showed +178,000 jobs—nearly three times the 60,000 consensus. Unemployment fell to 4.3%. But labor force participation dropped to 61.9%, its lowest since November 2021. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, with the Prices component surging to 78.3—a four-year high—as 40% of respondents cited the Iran war. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 53.3, the lowest since December 2025, with one-year inflation expectations jumping to 3.8%.

Technology & Growth

The Magnificent Seven posted their first collective weekly gain in over a month, but every member remained negative year-to-date—a first since the AI rally began in January 2023.

NVIDIA (NVDA) surged 5.6% on Tuesday after announcing a $2 billion strategic stake in Marvell Technology for AI infrastructure. The stock climbed from roughly $167 Monday to $175.75 by Wednesday before pulling back. Iran's Revolutionary Guard listed NVDA among 18 U.S. tech companies that could be "legitimate targets." Despite that risk, 41 of 42 covering analysts maintain Buy ratings with an average target of $273—implying 63% upside from current levels.

Tesla (TSLA) dominated Thursday after reporting Q1 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles—missing the 370,000 StreetAccount estimate. Production of 408,386 left a 50,363-unit gap, signaling demand weakness rather than supply constraints. Shares plunged 5.42% to close at $360.59 on April 2, the steepest single-day decline of 2026. Deliveries fell 14% sequentially from Q4 2025. The loss of the federal EV tax credit after Q3 2025 clearly weighed on U.S. demand. Investors who positioned for a delivery beat on Tuesday's broad rally got caught offside.

Apple (AAPL) fell 0.87% Monday before rallying Tuesday. Warren Buffett told CNBC on March 31 he "sold Apple too soon." Barclays issued a rare Sell rating, citing soft iPhone trends. Apple remained the best-performing Mag Seven stock at −7.4% YTD.

Microsoft (MSFT) rose through mid-week on cloud and AI recovery optimism but remained the worst-performing Mag Seven member at −23% YTD. The company reorganized its Copilot AI division.

Alphabet (GOOGL) roiled memory chip stocks Monday when its TurboQuant AI breakthrough raised concerns about reduced memory demand—Micron fell 10%. Meta (META) gained 2.1% Monday while the Nasdaq fell 0.73%, driven by oversold bouncing at under 20× forward earnings. Amazon (AMZN) rose 0.8% Monday and was reportedly in discussions to acquire Globalstar for roughly $9 billion.

Broadcom (AVGO) traded $300–$320, supported by AI semiconductor revenue surging 106% year-over-year to $8.4 billion.

Financial Institutions

Financials led the S&P 500 on Monday with a 1.1% sector gain, benefiting from Powell's dovish tone and a Basel III endgame proposal easing capital requirements.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) closed at $294.60 on April 2 (−0.26%). The bank restricted lending to private credit firms after marking down software loans amid AI disruption fears. CEO Jamie Dimon warned of "too much complacency in markets." Q1 earnings due April 14 were widely characterized as the "litmus test" for the economy.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) rallied through the week on Buffett's CNBC appearance, approximately 20% below its peak. Berkshire was pursuing a $1.8 billion stake in Tokio Marine and benefiting from its massive cash position during the volatility. Buffett's comment that he "sold Apple too soon" moved both AAPL and BRK.B—a reminder that in this market, even a 95-year-old's offhand remarks carry more weight than some earnings reports.

Visa (V) traded near $294–$305, down 14% YTD. JPMorgan named it its "top overall pick" for 2026, though headwinds included a DOJ antitrust lawsuit and Trump's proposed credit card interest rate cap. Mastercard (MA) outperformed Visa with Q4 revenue growth of 18% YoY. Bank of America (BAC) was expected to report its 16th consecutive quarter of trading revenue growth when Q1 results arrive April 15.

The sector's key risk remained private credit stress—Blue Owl Capital capped redemptions at 5% after receiving 40.7% redemption requests in Q1.

Consumer Staples & Healthcare

Eli Lilly (LLY) dominated the week. The FDA approved Foundayo (orforglipron) on April 1—the first oral GLP-1 pill for obesity and the first new molecular entity under the National Priority Voucher program. Approval came in just 50 days, the fastest since 2002. The highest dose produced 12.4% body weight loss in Phase 3 trials. Priced at $25/month with insurance and $149/month self-pay. LLY surged 3.7% to $954 on April 1 before falling 1.98% to $935.58 on April 2 on the pharmaceutical tariff announcement. Lilly also announced a $6.3 billion acquisition of Centessa Pharmaceuticals.

AbbVie (ABBV) fell 2.9–3.2% to $208.84 on April 2, pressured by J&J's Icotyde oral psoriasis pill (approved March 18) that threatens AbbVie's Skyrizi franchise.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) received a Raymond James upgrade on April 1 to Outperform with a $330 target. The stock climbed 1.2% to $277.26 on April 2 but remains −21% YTD.

Procter & Gamble (PG) languished near 52-week lows after TD Cowen and Deutsche Bank both cut price targets. PG closed around $143.15 on April 2.

Costco (COST) closed at $1,014.96 on April 2 (+1.85%). Walmart (WMT) traded around $124–$125, up 46% over the past year.

Trump signed an executive order on April 2 imposing up to 100% tariffs on imported patented medications under Section 232. Thirteen companies have already signed deals for lower rates. He also strengthened metals tariffs: 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper articles.

Energy & Industrial

Crude oil was the week's most volatile asset. WTI settled at $104.69 Monday, dipped below $100 Tuesday on ceasefire hopes, then exploded 11.4% to $111.54 on Thursday—the highest settlement since June 2022. Intraday Thursday, WTI spiked to $113.93. Gas prices topped $4.01/gallon nationally on March 31, the first time above $4 since 2022.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) hit an intraday all-time high of $176.41 on March 30 before reversing hard, closing at $160.69 on April 2. The weekly loss of 6.4% from Monday's peak shows how energy stocks decouple from spot oil when recession anxiety rises. Citi raised its XOM target to $175, and Exxon's Golden Pass LNG facility produced its first LNG at its Texas plant. But none of that mattered to investors pricing in demand destruction.

Home Depot (HD) traded $320–$335, pinned near its March 20 52-week low of $320.26. Mortgage rates at 6.38% and $4+ gasoline kept homeowners "hunkered down." HD named Dr. Franziska Bell as EVP/CTO and its SRS Distribution subsidiary is acquiring HVAC distributor Mingledorff's, but near-term headwinds from stagflation fears kept the stock roughly 23% below its September 2025 high.

Gold opened the week around $4,556, surged to $4,784 on Wednesday, then reversed to close near $4,703 on Thursday. Despite being a traditional safe haven, gold dropped more than 13% through March—its worst month since June 2013. The paradox: oil-driven inflation shifted rate expectations toward hikes, a strong dollar competed for safe-haven flows, and margin-call liquidation forced gold sales. Goldman Sachs maintained its $5,400/oz year-end target.

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Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️

• Compounded medications are only indicated for patients when a prescribing practitioner determines that the compounded preparation produces a significant difference for their patient compared to the FDA-approved product. Compounded medications are not reviewed by the FDA for safety, efficacy, or quality.