Sponsored by

Anna's Markets Recap

_{Just facts, you think for yourself}

Saturday, 5:02 AM

March 14, 2026

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

The Gmail app usually clips the bottom quarter of our emails, we recommend you reading our full article online here.

Wall Street's Week of War, Oil Shocks, and Stagflation Fears

The week of March 7–13, 2026 was one of the most turbulent of the year, as the escalating U.S.-Iran military conflict drove Brent crude above $100/barrel for the first time since August 2022, crushing equities across nearly every sector. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% to close at 6,632.19 — a new 2026 low — marking its first three-week losing streak in roughly a year. Only energy stocks and select defensive names posted gains. A barrage of economic data released late in the week — including a GDP revision to just 0.7% annualized growth and core PCE inflation stuck at 3.1% — crystallized stagflation fears that had been building since February's shocking 92,000-job loss payrolls report. Gold, paradoxically, declined about 2–3% as the U.S. dollar surged to its highest level of 2026.

The Iran War Dominated Every Trading Session

The military conflict that began on February 28 with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran was the week's overwhelming market driver. Monday opened with oil spiking near $120/barrel before a dramatic intraday reversal when President Trump told CBS the war was "very complete, pretty much." Brent crude collapsed from $120 to close near $99 on Monday, then fell further to $87.80 on Tuesday — an extraordinary 11.3% single-day drop — as hopes of a rapid resolution surged.

Those hopes evaporated by midweek. Iran's newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (installed March 9) declared the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed. Iranian forces attacked shipping vessels in the Persian Gulf on Thursday, and oil ripped higher. WTI surged 9.7% to $95.73 on Thursday alone, with Brent breaching the psychologically critical $100 level. By Friday's close, WTI settled at $98.71 and Brent at $103.14 — up roughly 40% for the month.

The IEA announced a 400-million-barrel emergency strategic reserve release on Wednesday, the largest coordinated release in history. The U.S. contribution alone was 172 million barrels. The Trump administration also temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil in transit and considered Jones Act waivers for domestic oil transport. None of these measures durably calmed markets. Gasoline prices hit $3.54/gallon, the highest since mid-2024, up 21% in a single month.

The broad market deteriorated through the week in a clear pattern: a Monday relief rally gave way to Thursday's heavy selloff and Friday's continuation lower.

Thursday March 12 was the week's worst session, with the Dow plunging 739 points and the VIX spiking to roughly 27–28. The S&P 500 ended the week 5% below its recent high and roughly 3% negative year-to-date. A pronounced "Great Rotation" was underway: Consumer Staples were up +13% YTD, Energy +19% YTD, while Technology sat at −1.9% YTD. The Magnificent Seven ETF was down 8.8% YTD.

A Deluge of Economic Data Painted a Stagflationary Picture

The week delivered an unusually dense calendar of economic releases, and the aggregate picture was deeply unsettling for policymakers and investors alike.

CPI (released Wednesday, March 11): February headline CPI came in at +0.3% month-over-month and +2.4% year-over-year, both in line with consensus. Core CPI printed at +0.2% MoM / +2.5% YoY. Shelter costs rose just 0.2% — the smallest monthly rent increase since January 2021. Markets barely reacted, recognizing the data predated the Iran conflict and oil shock.

GDP revision (released Friday, March 13): Q4 2025 GDP was revised sharply downward to just +0.7% annualized from the advance estimate of 1.4%, well below the 1.5% consensus. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated the October–November 2025 government shutdown subtracted roughly 1 percentage point. Full-year 2025 GDP growth was revised to 2.1%.

PCE inflation (released Friday, March 13): The Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed headline PCE at +2.8% YoY (slightly below the 2.9% consensus) but core PCE at +3.1% YoY — well above the Fed's 2% target and 0.1 percentage points higher than December.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (released Friday, March 13): The preliminary March reading fell to 55.5, with director Joanne Hsu noting that interviews completed before the Iran strikes showed improvement, but subsequent readings completely erased those initial gains. One-year inflation expectations held at 3.4%.

Other data: JOLTS showed job openings little changed at 6.9 million; weekly jobless claims were a reassuringly low 213,000; and durable goods orders missed badly at −1.4% versus +1.2% expected.

The Federal Reserve, with its next FOMC meeting scheduled for March 17–18, was virtually certain to hold rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. Rate cut expectations collapsed during the week — only one cut remained priced for all of 2026, pushed out to December. The probability of zero cuts for the entire year rose to roughly 45%.

Technology & Growth: All Red, Led by Meta's 6% Plunge

Every major technology stock declined for the week, dragged lower by the macro backdrop despite several company-specific positive developments. The Magnificent Seven collectively extended their worst start to a year in recent memory.

Meta Platforms (META) was the week's biggest tech loser, falling approximately 6.3% to close Friday at $614.10. The damage came in two waves: Meta unveiled four custom AI chips (MTIA 300/400/450/500) on March 11 as part of its push to reduce NVIDIA dependence, but the stock barely reacted. The real catalyst for Friday's 3.8% single-day plunge was Reuters reporting that Meta had delayed its next-generation AI model, codenamed "Avocado," to at least May. Combined with the company's staggering $115–$135 billion capital expenditure guidance for 2026 and reports that billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller had exited his position, sentiment soured sharply.

Apple (AAPL) fell roughly 4–5% to approximately $255–$258 despite a major product blitz. On March 11, Apple launched the MacBook Neo at $599 — its cheapest laptop ever, using an A18 Pro chip — along with the iPhone 17e at $599, updated MacBook Air and Pro models with M5 chips, and a refreshed iPad Air. Asus's CFO called the MacBook Neo a shock to the entire market. However, CEO Tim Cook's warning that memory prices are increasing weighed on margin expectations, and the oil-driven macro selloff overwhelmed product excitement.

Microsoft (MSFT) declined 3.3% to $395.54, slipping below the psychologically important $400 level. The company launched Copilot Cowork with Anthropic's Claude on Monday, integrating Claude AI into Microsoft 365 for autonomous presentation building, data analysis, and meeting scheduling. M365 Copilot paid seats surged 160% year-over-year and 90% of Fortune 500 companies now use the platform. Despite these metrics, the stock's 15% YTD decline — its worst start since 2008 — reflects persistent investor anxiety about the return profile of Microsoft's approximately $50 billion annual AI infrastructure investment.

Amazon (AMZN) lost 2.7% to $207.70. The week's main company news was the Zoox-Uber multiyear partnership announced March 11, which will put Amazon's robotaxis on the Uber app starting in Las Vegas this summer. Bloomberg also reported Amazon plans to move Prime Day from July to late June. Morgan Stanley maintained a $300 price target, implying 40%+ upside, but Raymond James cut its target from $275 to $260.

NVIDIA (NVDA) fell approximately 2.5% to $180.25, relatively contained given the macro environment. The company announced a $2 billion investment in Nebius, a cloud AI firm, gaining early access to its Rubin architecture. Barclays published research arguing NVDA shares are too cheap and that the AI spending cycle is far from peak. All eyes turned to GTC 2026 (March 16–19), where CEO Jensen Huang's keynote was expected to detail Vera Rubin chip updates. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its $300 price target.

Alphabet (GOOGL) was relatively resilient, declining only about 1.3% to roughly $304.90. The company combined its GFiber unit with Astound Broadband to create an independent fiber provider, and Google Maps added a Gemini AI-powered conversational search feature. Reports that Meta was considering licensing Google's Gemini AI as a stopgap underscored Alphabet's competitive position.

Tesla (TSLA) dropped approximately 2.6% to around $395. China sales data showing a 91% year-over-year surge to 58,600 vehicles in February drove a 2.1% rally on Wednesday, though the comparison was flattered by a weak base. Tesla submitted Full Self-Driving data to NHTSA by the March 9 deadline and received FTC clearance to convert its xAI investment into a sub-1% SpaceX stake. Bank of America reinstated a Buy rating with a $460 target, while BNP Paribas cut to $280.

Salesforce (CRM) fell roughly 3.2% to approximately $192.80, with dramatic intraday swings. The marquee event was a $25 billion bond offering — the company's largest ever — priced across eight tranches on March 11, with all proceeds directed toward an accelerated share repurchase. The stock jumped ~3% on Thursday on the buyback news but reversed sharply Friday, making CRM the worst performer in the Dow that day. Bloomberg noted lukewarm demand, with the order book only 1.4x oversubscribed.

Netflix (NFLX) declined approximately 2–3% to around $94.72 (post-10:1 split basis). The company acquired Ben Affleck's AI film company InterPositive and cut dozens of product team jobs. JPMorgan had recently upgraded the stock to Buy with a $120 target. The $2.8 billion termination fee from the collapsed Warner Bros. Discovery deal remained a positive overhang.

Broadcom (AVGO) continued drifting lower post-earnings, declining roughly 3–5% to approximately $325–$330. The Q1 FY2026 results reported March 4 were strong: revenue of $19.3 billion (+29% YoY), EPS of $2.05 (beating $1.88 estimates), and AI revenue of $8.4 billion (+106% YoY). CEO Hock Tan's guidance of at least $100 billion in AI chip revenue by fiscal 2027 initially wowed Wall Street, but the broader selloff eroded those gains. During the week, Broadcom began volume shipments of its Tomahawk 6 switch with 102.4 Tbps capacity.

Financial Institutions: Buckled Under Rate and Credit Stress

Financial institutions faced a triple headwind: rising oil-driven inflation expectations pushing rate cuts further out, emerging stress in private credit markets, and stagflation fears dampening the lending outlook. The KBW Bank Index plunged 3.5% on Thursday alone.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) was the most resilient financial name, declining only about 1.3% to approximately $492.46. New CEO Greg Abel published his first shareholder letter, the company resumed share buybacks for the first time since 2024, and Abel personally purchased $15 million of BRK stock. With $369 billion in liquidity, Berkshire was positioned as the premier defensive financial holding.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) fell roughly 3–4% to approximately $282–$285, hurt by reports that it had marked down loans to software companies in its private credit portfolio and restricted lending to private credit firms. The bank announced plans to open 160+ new Chase branches across 30+ states. CEO Jamie Dimon warned about market complacency.

Bank of America (BAC) declined approximately 1.5–2% to around $47.13, with a sharp 2.9% drop on Thursday. An analyst downgrade from "strong buy" to "hold" citing expense growth concerns added pressure. The stock is now down roughly 15.8% YTD from its January 5 all-time high of $57.55. Pending Basel III endgame rules expected late March could require billions in additional capital.

Visa (V) lost roughly 3–3.5% to approximately $307.25. BofA Securities reaffirmed its Buy rating. The company continued expanding its stablecoin transaction infrastructure through a partnership with Bridge (a Stripe subsidiary). Trump's proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap remained an overhang.

Mastercard (MA) was the hardest-hit financial stock, dropping approximately 4.5–5% to around $497. The company launched a Crypto Partner Program on March 11 and announced an AI-powered "Virtual C-Suite" for small businesses. Despite strong fundamentals (revenue up 17.6% YoY last quarter), the stock was down 12.9% YTD. The consensus analyst target of $662.80 implied substantial upside.

Consumer Staples & Healthcare: The Safe Harbors

The "Great Rotation" into defensive sectors was evident in this group's relative outperformance.

Costco (COST) gained approximately 1.5% to around $1,012, one of only three stocks (with XOM and WMT) to post weekly gains. The Q2 FY2026 earnings reported March 5 showed EPS of $4.58 (beating $4.55 consensus), revenue of $69.6 billion, comparable sales up 7.4%, and digital sales surging 22.6%. Membership fee income grew 13.6% to $1.355 billion. The stock initially dipped 2.4% post-earnings on valuation concerns (~50x P/E) but recovered as investors sought defensive exposure.

Walmart (WMT) rose roughly 1–2% to approximately $125.72–$125.83, benefiting from the same defensive rotation. A Walmart-Google shopping integration was announced, and the company named a new Chief Legal Officer. Raymond James reiterated Outperform with a $135 target, while BofA maintained Buy at $150.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was the week's most stable stock, ending essentially flat at approximately $242.50 — barely moving despite the surrounding chaos. Citi raised its price target to $274 from $250. The company received EU approval for AKEEGA for prostate cancer, FDA approval for a TECVAYLI + DARZALEX combination for multiple myeloma, and FDA approval for the Tecnis PureSee intraocular lens.

Eli Lilly (LLY) finished the week down only about 0.4% near $997, with Friday's 1.6% rally making it a top S&P 500 gainer as investors fled into recession-resistant GLP-1 drug exposure. Lilly announced a $3 billion manufacturing investment in China for oral obesity drug orforglipron and launched an Employer Connect program offering Zepbound at $449 across all doses.

AbbVie (ABBV) slipped about 1.8% to approximately $223. The company presented Phase 1 weight-loss data for ABBV-295 showing clinically meaningful body weight reduction of 7.75–9.79% at week 12, marking its entry into the obesity drug market. SKYRIZI Phase 3 results for Crohn's disease achieved superiority in co-primary endpoints.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) declined roughly 1.5% to approximately $278–$282, extending its brutal 39% decline over the past year. Ongoing antitrust investigations, Medicare Advantage rate pressures, and Medicaid margin deterioration continued to weigh on the stock.

Procter & Gamble (PG) was a notable underperformer among staples, falling roughly 3–4% to approximately $150.65 despite the sector's YTD leadership. An Italy competition authority investigation and a labeling lawsuit added to pressure.

Energy & Industrial

Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the week's standout winner across all 24 stocks tracked, gaining approximately 3.8% to $156.13 — approaching its all-time high of $159.60 set March 2. As the largest direct beneficiary of the Iran-driven oil surge, Exxon's position was strengthened by Piper Sandler raising price targets across integrated oil companies by an average of 25%. The company evacuated non-essential employees from Middle East operations. Energy was the best-performing sector of 2026 at +19% YTD.

Home Depot (HD) was among the week's worst performers, plunging roughly 5.3% to approximately $339.10. The ex-dividend date of March 12 ($2.33/share) accounted for a portion of the decline, but the real pressure came from consumer spending fears as gasoline prices surged. Deutsche Bank warned of a near-immediate hit to store traffic reminiscent of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine disruption. CFO Richard McPhail sold 2,550 shares during the week.

Gold Retreated as the Dollar Asserted Safe-Haven Dominance

In a counterintuitive move given the geopolitical turmoil, gold declined approximately 2–3% for the week, falling from roughly $5,200 to about $5,033–$5,096 by Friday. The U.S. dollar index hit its highest level of 2026, competing directly with gold as a safe-haven asset. Rising Treasury yields — the 10-year climbed to 4.28% from 3.97% before the war began — also pressured gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. Gold remains up over 25% from a year ago, and major banks maintain bullish targets: J.P. Morgan at $6,300 and Deutsche Bank at $6,000 for 2026. The all-time record of $5,602.22 was set on January 28 and was not challenged this week.

Conclusion: Markets Price in an Uncomfortable New Reality

This week marked a decisive shift in market psychology. The brief Monday optimism that the Iran conflict might end quickly gave way to the grim realization that the Strait of Hormuz disruption could persist, oil above $100 may be the new baseline, and the Federal Reserve is trapped between slowing growth and sticky inflation. The convergence of 0.7% GDP growth, negative payrolls, 3.1% core PCE, and $100+ oil creates a policy environment with no easy exits — a textbook stagflationary setup not seen since the 1970s.

The market's structure tells the story clearly: Exxon Mobil (+3.8%), Costco (+1.5%), and Walmart (+1–2%) were the week's only winners among the 24 stocks tracked, while Meta (−6.3%), Home Depot (−5.3%), Mastercard (−4.5 to −5%), and Apple (−4 to −5%) bore the heaviest losses. With the FOMC meeting on March 17–18 and NVIDIA's GTC conference on March 16–19, the coming week promises no respite from volatility. The Fed's updated economic projections and dot plot will be scrutinized for any signal that policymakers see a path through the stagflation maze — but with rate cut expectations pushed out to December and the VIX elevated near 28, markets are bracing for turbulence ahead.

We don’t take shortcuts, chase headlines, or push narratives. We just bring you the news, straight and fair. If you value that, click here to become a paid subscriber—your support makes all the difference.

Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️

• Information contained in this email and websites maintained by Magnifi Communities LLC (dba Investors Alley) are for educational purposes only and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
  
  Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve risk, and you may lose your principal investment.
  
  All information contained herein is copyright 2025, Magnifi Communities LLC.