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Anna's Markets Recap
Just facts, you think for yourself
Saturday, 5:22 AM
May 16, 2026
Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟
The Gmail app usually clips the bottom quarter of our emails, we recommend you reading our full article online here.
For readers with $1M+ in investable assets
Each month, federal and state agencies publish hundreds of regulatory documents — IRS guidance, Treasury rulemaking, Tax Court decisions, CMS rules, SEC and DOL actions, state legislation. Most do not matter to any one household. A few each month can move six figures.
We launched The Regulatory Docket to find the few that matter. It is a monthly briefing for households earning $200,000+ annually with $1M-$20M in investable assets. Each issue walks through the developments most likely to affect this audience — what changed, who it affects, the dollar consequence, and the specific question to bring to your CPA, advisor, or attorney before the planning window closes.
Issue Zero covers 16 developments from April 2026. The PDF is free to download.
$149/month or $1,490/year, early subscriber price through May 31. After May 31: $189/month or $1,890/year.
Economic & Market Overview
The week began with records and ended with a tape bomb. Hot inflation, a contested Fed chair confirmation, and a Trump-Xi summit that failed to deliver a Strait of Hormuz reopening combined to send yields soaring and tech rolling over on Friday.
Index performance. The S&P 500 closed Friday May 8 at 7,398.93 and opened the new week with another record close of 7,412.84 on Monday May 11. The benchmark hit an intraday all-time high of 7,517.12 on Thursday May 14 and closed Thursday at a record 7,501.24, finally cracking 7,500. Friday's selloff erased most weekly gains: the S&P closed at 7,408.50 on May 15, down 1.24% on the day and roughly 0.1% on the week — ending a six-week winning streak.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average reclaimed 50,000 for the first time since February 11, closing Thursday at 50,063.46. Friday's 537-point drop, or 1.07%, sent the Dow back to 49,526.17. The Dow finished the week down roughly 0.17%.
The Nasdaq Composite hit a record close of 26,635.22 on Thursday May 14 with an intraday peak of 26,707.14. Friday's 1.54% decline took it to 26,225.14, leaving the index roughly flat for the week and snapping a six-week win streak.
The Russell 2000 dropped more than 2% on Friday — its worst session since November 2025 — snapping a seven-week winning streak.
A sitting member of the House Budget Committee just disclosed a massive stock drop worth up to $25,000,000 in a single domestic energy play.
Read that again.
Twenty-five. Million. Dollars.
While the retail patsies are trying to day-trade the latest Fed speech, the actual gatekeepers of the American economy are quietly backing up the truck. This isn't investing. This is a glitch in the matrix.
The data we pulled this week shows a massive shadow rotation out of risk and into the lifeboats. A heavyweight on the Senate Banking Committee just ripped half a million dollars out of a highly specific medical tech sector. Why? Because they see the regulation coming before you even know it exists.
Here are the high-conviction signals flashing red this week:
The $25M Energy Anomaly: A Budget Committee insider just secured up to $25M in a single, highly-specific energy infrastructure company.
The Banking Committee Bailout: A key player on Senate Finance just panic-sold up to $500,000 in a niche healthcare sub-sector.
The Appropriations Bunker: An Appropriations giant just liquidated their agriculture tech to load up on recession-proof consumer staples.
Don't be the liquidity for their exit strategy. Upgrade now to get the exact tickers, the names, and the trade dates.
10-year Treasury yield. Yields ground higher every day and ripped on Friday. The 10-year started the week near 4.40%, climbed past 4.50% after the PPI shock Wednesday, and finished Friday May 15 at 4.59% — the highest since February 2025. The 30-year tagged 5.121%, the highest since May 22, 2025. The 2-year ended at 4.09%. CME FedWatch flipped to imply a 45% probability of a Fed rate hike by December 2026, up from 22.5% a week earlier and 1% a month earlier.
US Dollar Index. The DXY rallied from roughly 97.84 on Monday May 11 to 99.27 by Friday's close, a weekly gain of about 1.5%. Drivers: hot CPI/PPI, Kevin Warsh's narrow Senate confirmation, and rising real yields. The index hit its highest level in about a month on Friday.
Economic data.
April CPI (Tuesday May 12): Headline +0.6% m/m, +3.8% y/y — the highest annual rate since May 2023. Core +0.4% m/m, +2.8% y/y — the hottest monthly core since January 2025. Energy +3.8% accounted for over 40% of the headline gain; gasoline rose 28.4% y/y. Real average hourly wages fell 0.5% for the month.
April PPI (Wednesday May 13): Headline +1.4% m/m, +6.0% y/y — the biggest annual gain since December 2022 and biggest monthly jump since March 2022. Core PPI ex-food, energy, and trade services +0.6%. Services +1.2%, the most since March 2022. Trade services margins +2.7% — a sign tariff pass-through is starting. Consensus was +0.5%.
April Retail Sales (Thursday May 14): Headline +0.5% m/m to $757.1 billion, +4.9% y/y. Gasoline stations +2.8%. Control group +0.5%. March was revised down from +1.7% to +1.6%.
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended May 9): 211,000, up 12,000 from prior and above the 206,000 estimate. Continuing claims rose 24,000 to 1.782 million.
Empire State Manufacturing (May, Friday May 15): Jumped to 19.6, the highest since April 2022. Consensus was 7.0.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May preliminary, released Friday May 8): 48.2 — the lowest reading in survey data going back to November 1952. One-year inflation expectations 4.5% (down from 4.7%). Director Joanne Hsu: "Consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump." Next reading May 22.
Fed. The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair on Wednesday May 13 by 54-45 — the narrowest margin in Fed history. Sen. John Fetterman was the only Democrat in favor. Powell's term as Chair ended Friday May 15; Powell remains a governor. Warsh's first FOMC meeting is June 16-17.
Gold. Gold suffered a brutal week. Spot opened around $4,685 Thursday and slid to $4,565 by Friday morning, with a Friday low near $4,483 — the lowest since March 2026. Gold closed near $4,530-$4,558 on Friday May 15, down roughly 4% on the week and 5.2% over four weeks. Drivers: surging real yields, a stronger dollar, fully priced-out Fed rate cuts, and India tightening gold import regulations.
Geopolitical/policy events. President Trump's Beijing summit with President Xi Jinping ran May 13-15 — the first US presidential visit to China in nine years. Trump brought 16 CEOs including Apple's Tim Cook, Tesla's Elon Musk, BlackRock's Larry Fink, Goldman's David Solomon, and a last-minute addition: Nvidia's Jensen Huang. The summit ended without a Strait of Hormuz reopening. Trump announced China would buy 200 Boeing jets (potentially up to 750) and US oil from Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska. The Iran war remained the dominant macro overhang — WTI crude closed Friday near $101 and Brent near $107. The AAA national gasoline average was $4.53/gallon as of May 14.
The Cerebras Systems IPO priced at $185 on Wednesday May 13, raised $5.55 billion (the largest US tech IPO since Uber's 2019 debut), and opened Thursday May 14 on Nasdaq. It closed up 68% at $311.07 in its debut, then fell exactly 10% on Friday May 15.
Technology & Growth
NVIDIA (NVDA). Nvidia ran into the Trump-Xi summit, hit a record, then sold off hard Friday. On Monday May 11, after a Bloomberg report said CEO Jensen Huang was not invited on Air Force One, the stock paradoxically jumped roughly 5% to $222.16 — investors read the snub as priced in. By Tuesday May 12, Trump added Huang last-minute, picking him up in Alaska. The stock hit an all-time high on Wednesday May 13, pushing market cap to $5.4 trillion. Reuters reported Thursday May 14 that the US has cleared roughly 10 Chinese firms — Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com — to buy Nvidia H200 chips at up to 75,000 units each, but zero deliveries had been made. On Friday May 15, NVDA dropped 4.4% in the broad chip rout as yields spiked. Nvidia reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings on May 20.
Apple (AAPL). Tim Cook joined Trump's China delegation. Apple shares hit a new all-time intraday and closing high on Wednesday May 13, with the stock breaking above $300 for the first time. Reuters reported Apple is quietly seeking tariff refunds via the CBP CAPE portal — the agency had approved 86,874 refund applications totaling $35.46 billion across all applicants as of Monday May 11. Apple was flat-to-down Friday in the broad tech selloff.
Microsoft (MSFT). The week's standout long-tail move. Pre-market Friday May 15, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed via X a new $2.1 billion stake — roughly 5.65 million shares — built since February at a valuation of 21 times forward earnings, broadly in line with the market multiple and well below Microsoft's trading averages. Ackman called M365 and Azure "two of the most valuable franchises in enterprise technology" and described Microsoft's OpenAI partnership restructuring as a deliberate pivot toward a more open, multi-model architecture. MSFT closed at $421.92 on Friday May 15, up 3.05%, defying a 1.54% Nasdaq drop. The stock remains down roughly 13% year-to-date. CFO Amy Hood said on the April 29 fiscal Q3 call that Microsoft expects to invest roughly $190 billion in capital expenditures for calendar year 2026, which includes approximately $25 billion from the impact of higher component pricing.
Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOGL). No company-specific catalysts inside May 11-15. All three traded with the broader AI tape: up Monday-Thursday, sold off Friday with Nvidia leading the chip rout. Alphabet got a 13F-related kick when Berkshire's Friday filing revealed a new GOOG Class C position (3.59 million shares) and a 204% bump to its GOOGL Class A holding to roughly 54 million shares worth $15.6 billion. Ackman conversely slashed his Alphabet stake — Class C from over 6.1 million to about 312,000 shares — to fund the Microsoft buy.
Tesla (TSLA). Musk joined Trump in Beijing alongside Cook. The week's narrative focused on FSD approval in China and Optimus production. On Monday May 11, Tesla announced the final Model S rolled off the Fremont line; the Fremont section will be repurposed for Optimus. Tesla pushed software update 2026.14.6 over cellular Tuesday-Thursday, with FSD 14.2.2.5 rolling out Monday May 12. By Friday May 15, TSLA had fallen to roughly $423 — down from $445 earlier in the week — pressured by reported robotaxi glitches in Dallas and Houston, Panasonic battery delays, and the broader growth-stock selloff. Polymarket implied just 9% probability of a California robotaxi launch by June 30.
Cisco (CSCO) — earnings analysis. Cisco reported fiscal Q3 2026 after the close Wednesday May 13.
Setup: The stock entered earnings up 28-33% YTD and 64.68% over twelve months, with options markets pricing a ±9.87% post-print move (above the four-quarter average of 5.71%). Wall Street consensus: $1.04 EPS / $15.56 billion revenue. Whispers leaned higher given Meta and Alphabet capex raises. UBS modeled hyperscaler AI orders of roughly $1 billion; the buy-side wanted at least $1.5 billion. Evercore had a $110 PT.
Print: EPS $1.06 (beat by 2 cents), revenue $15.84 billion (beat by $280 million, +12% y/y). Product revenue $12.1 billion, +17% y/y. Total product orders +35% y/y; networking orders +50%; data center switching +40%. Hyperscaler AI orders $1.9 billion in the quarter vs. $600 million a year ago.
Guidance shift: This is where the story changed. Cisco raised its full-year FY26 AI infrastructure order outlook to $9 billion from $5 billion. FY26 AI revenue: $4 billion, up from $3 billion. CFO Mark Patterson signaled at least $6 billion of AI hyperscale revenue recognition in FY27. Q4 FY26 guide: $16.7-$16.9 billion revenue, $1.16-$1.18 adj EPS — both above Street consensus of $15.82 billion and $1.07. Cisco also announced a workforce reduction of fewer than 4,000 jobs (~5%), with pre-tax restructuring charges up to $1 billion.
Reaction: CSCO surged 15% after hours and closed Thursday May 14 up 13.4%, dragging the Dow above 50,000. The move blew past the implied options range, suggesting forced short covering and delta hedging by dealers caught short gamma. The five-to-ten-year story shifted: investors are now modeling Cisco as a structural AI infrastructure beneficiary rather than a legacy networking name.
Broadcom (AVGO), Salesforce (CRM), Netflix (NFLX). No discrete company news inside the window. All three traded with the broader tape — up Monday-Thursday, hit on Friday.
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Financial Institutions
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). Friday May 15 after the close, Berkshire filed its Q1 2026 13F — the first under new CEO Greg Abel. The portfolio shrank from 42 to 29 positions and from roughly $274 billion to $263 billion. The cash pile reached $397 billion after a 14th consecutive quarter of net stock sales.
New positions: Delta Air Lines (DAL), roughly 39.8 million shares (~$2.6 billion) — Berkshire's return to airlines; Macy's (M), 3 million shares; Alphabet Class C (GOOG), 3.59 million shares.
Major additions: Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) +204% to ~54 million shares (~$15.6 billion); New York Times +199%; Lennar +43%.
Full exits (16 positions): Visa, Mastercard, UnitedHealth, Amazon, Domino's, Aon, Pool Corp, Heico, Formula One, and six Japanese trading houses.
Major trim: Chevron.
Apple remains roughly 22% of the portfolio; top five (AAPL, AXP, KO, BAC, CVX) still ~68%. Reaction was after-hours / Monday-bound, but the Delta and Alphabet reveals are likely to lift those names at Monday's open.
JPMorgan (JPM). No corporate catalysts inside the window. J.P. Morgan Private Bank published its "2026 Mid-Year Global Investment Outlook: Promise and Pressure" on Monday May 11. JPM traded with the bank tape.
Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA). The week's key V/MA catalyst landed Friday after close: Berkshire fully exited both. The UK FCA also has an active competition probe into Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal digital wallets — ongoing background.
Bank of America (BAC). Hosted its Healthcare Conference May 12-15. No specific corporate news in the window.
Consumer Staples & Healthcare
Eli Lilly (LLY). On Thursday May 14, Lilly announced a six-year, $50 million partnership with UNICEF USA on non-communicable diseases in children — its 150th-anniversary commitment — with coverage across 21 lower-middle-income countries. The same day, Lilly launched donanemab (brand Lormalzi) in India for early Alzheimer's. The FDA issued a Complete Response Letter on orforglipron (Foundayo), requesting post-marketing safety studies on MACE, drug-induced liver injury, and retained gastric contents — Lilly released additional ACHIEVE-4 data in response. Morgan Stanley issued a $1,344 price target during the week. LLY closed at $1,014.93 on Wednesday May 13.
AbbVie (ABBV). No company-specific catalyst inside May 11-15. ABBV traded with the healthcare tape.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH). UNH was a Q1 winner inside the window. The company presented at Bank of America's Healthcare Conference on Tuesday May 12 (8-K filed May 11). Goldman Sachs reiterated UNH on its Conviction List ($435 PT, Buy) with mid-week coverage. Bank of America raised its PT to $420 from $380. UNH hit a new 52-week high on Wednesday May 13 and traded near $398 by Thursday — up 27.7% over the prior month from the March 27 low near $259. The Friday May 15 reveal that Berkshire fully exited UNH in Q1 sets up volatility at Monday's open.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). On Tuesday May 12, J&J announced FDA approval of TECNIS PureSee IOL, an extended depth-of-focus intraocular lens for cataract surgery.
Procter & Gamble (PG). No company-specific news in the window.
Costco (COST). April sales report (released May 6) showed $23.92 billion in net sales, +13.0% y/y; the sales call replay window closed Wednesday May 13 at 4 PM PT. COST crossed the $1,000 mark mid-week and finished the week up roughly 17% YTD.
Walmart (WMT). On Thursday May 14, Walmart confirmed Q1 FY2027 earnings release for Thursday May 21, 2026 at 6 AM CDT. Consensus heading in: EPS $0.65 / revenue $174.65 billion. Walmart traded under pressure with the retail tape — SPDR S&P Retail ETF fell more than 6% on the week, its fourth straight weekly decline.
Energy & Industrial
Exxon Mobil (XOM). Thursday May 14 was the ex-dividend date for the $1.03 quarterly dividend (record date May 15, payable June 10). XOM closed near $152.74 on Friday May 15. Energy was the only positive S&P sector on Friday, +1.6%, as Brent rose 1.49% to $107.30. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed.
Home Depot (HD). Earnings due Tuesday May 19, so the week was all setup. On Monday May 11, Gordon Haskett cut its PT from $395 to $330, sending HD to a new 52-week low. On Wednesday May 13, Truist cut its PT to $394 from $424 (kept Buy); HD fell 3.20% on the day. On Thursday May 14, Morningstar raised fair value to $335 from $325. By Friday May 15 the stock traded near $304, close to its 52-week low of $299.27. Consensus heading into the print: EPS $3.41 (-4.2% y/y) on $41.54 billion revenue (+4.2% y/y). The strong April retail sales print did not lift the name — housing-related K-shape concerns dominated.
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Baked with love,
Anna Eisenberg ❤️