Anna's Markets Recap

_{Just facts, you think for yourself}

Saturday, 5:24 AM

November 22, 2025

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

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The $10 Million Signal: What the "Smart Money" in Congress Just Did

A member of the committee that writes our tax laws just moved $5 million.

He didn’t buy Apple or Nvidia.

He bought a specialized bank note paying 11.25%.

Try asking your bank manager for a guaranteed 11% yield. They’ll laugh at you.

But Rep. Kevin Hern found it. And he made the trade right before a major portfolio shift.

He’s not alone.

This week, we tracked 11 members of Congress re-shuffling their portfolios.

One member just made his first major disclosed bet on Bitcoin. A Financial Services member bought eight specific stocks—from cybersecurity to burritos—in a single day. Another dumped a quarter-million into Netflix.

These people sit in the classified briefings. They know what legislation is coming down the pipe.

They aren't guessing.

If you are trading without seeing these moves, you are trading with one eye closed.

See the full list of 40 trades inside.

Click here for the full story.

What Moved Markets Last Week

The trading week of November 17 through November 22, 2025, marked a pivotal resumption of price discovery following the conclusion of the 43-day government shutdown. For over six weeks, the market operated in an informational vacuum, effectively "flying in the fog" without critical federal economic telemetry. The reopening of federal machinery on Thursday, November 20, triggered a violent compression of this volatility, forcing capital allocators to simultaneously digest a backlog of delayed economic data and high-stakes corporate earnings.

The immediate market reaction was not a relief rally, but a recalibration of risk premiums. The 10-year Treasury yield, rather than retreating on the resolution of fiscal paralysis, remained stubbornly elevated between 4.10% and 4.13%. This price action signals a regime of "Fiscal Dominance," where bond markets are pricing in the inflationary implications of the shutdown's resolution—likely involving substantial spending bills—rather than solely reacting to monetary policy. Consequently, the probability of a December Federal Reserve rate cut collapsed from approximately 90% to 50% by week's end.

A distinct "news-on-news" dynamic emerged, where stale delayed data clashed with real-time corporate guidance, revealing a sharp divergence between the "AI Economy" and the "Physical Economy." While the AI arms race continues with ferocity, the real economy exhibited signs of late-cycle fatigue, characterized by housing turnover at multi-decade lows and a consumer base aggressively trading down to value. This backdrop created a cognitive dissonance in equity valuations; fundamentals briefly took a backseat to market structure dynamics, including gamma pinning and volatility monetization, particularly during the November 21 options expiration.

Gold (XAU/USD) experienced extreme volatility, trading around $4,060/oz. Historically inversely correlated with real interest rates, gold broke this pattern by remaining resilient despite rising yields. This divergence is driven by aggressive central bank accumulation (notably the PBOC) and a rising "Fiscal Risk Premium." Gold is increasingly being repriced as a hedge against U.S. fiscal dysfunction and potential sovereign debt issues, rather than a simple inflation hedge.

Tech and Growth

The technology sector faced a severe reality check, shifting from indiscriminate momentum buying to a forensic examination of Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) regarding AI expenditures. The "easy money" phase appears to have concluded, replaced by a demand for immediate cash flow accretion over long-term transformation promises.

NVIDIA (NVDA) delivered the most critical macro-event of the quarter with its Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings on November 19. Despite reporting operational perfection—revenue of $57.0 billion (+62% YoY) and Data Center revenue of $51.2 billion (+66% YoY)—the stock finished the week lower (-3.14%). This decline illustrates a classic "sell the news" event driven by buy-side "whisper numbers" that exceeded consensus estimates ($58-59 billion expectations vs. $57 billion actual). Structural market dynamics played a key role; "gamma pinning" around the $180 strike price and a subsequent implied volatility crush forced a mechanical unwinding of leverage. Furthermore, management's acknowledgment of export restrictions to China highlighted a structural cap on the stock's multiple, removing a significant long-term growth vector.

Netflix (NFLX) executed a 10-for-1 stock split on November 17, adjusting its price to the $110 range. While mathematically neutral, the split lowered barriers for retail options participation, typically a precursor to higher volatility. However, the stock traded flat to down, mirroring the broader sector's "sell the news" sentiment. The re-emergence of patent litigation with Broadcom’s VMware subsidiary further complicated the narrative, highlighting the growing risk of IP rent extraction facing legacy tech firms.

Tesla (TSLA) traded distinctly apart from its "Magnificent Seven" peers, falling 4.8% following the re-approval of Elon Musk’s pay package. This approval paradoxically resolved "Key Man Risk" while introducing massive dilution concerns. Institutional capital appears increasingly weary of assigning a tech multiple to a cyclical auto business facing deteriorating fundamentals, specifically high interest rates crushing loan affordability. The "Robotaxi premium" is fraying as investors demand earnings quality over narrative.

Hyperscalers saw a rotation out of "capital spenders" and into "capital beneficiaries." Meta Platforms (META) suffered significantly (-21.59%) as investors punished aggressive AI capex without visible ROIC. Conversely, Alphabet (GOOGL) rose 8.22%, with the market viewing its valuation as reasonable and the Gemini integration into Search as a sufficient defensive moat. Amazon (AMZN) fell 5.71%, caught in the crossfire between its AI-driven AWS unit and a retail division exposed to consumer softness.

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Banks and Financials

The Financials sector traded primarily as a derivative of the bond market, navigating the "higher for longer" rate environment.

JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) remain positioned to benefit from the steepening yield curve, which theoretically expands Net Interest Margins (NIM). However, the velocity of rate moves caused concern regarding the valuation of bond portfolios held on balance sheets. The shutdown aftermath also raised red flags regarding credit quality; specifically, delayed federal paychecks sparked fears of a spike in short-term credit card delinquencies, prompting precautionary increases in loan loss provisions.

Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) demonstrated resilience, reinforcing their status as inflation hedges. A new settlement regarding interchange fees announced this week removes a long-standing legal overhang, despite potentially capping fee growth. The market continues to view the duopoly favorably as nominal transaction values rise with inflation.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) provided a critical bearish signal through inactivity. Warren Buffett continues to hoard cash and short-term Treasuries, avoiding major "elephant" acquisitions. This behavior implies a tacit view that the equity market is overvalued relative to the risk-free rate of ~4.5% available in bonds.

Consumer Goods and Healthcare

As volatility beset the tech sector, capital rotated decisively into Consumer Staples and Healthcare, emphasizing "Quality over Growth."

Walmart (WMT) emerged as the apex predator of the current K-shaped recovery. Its Q3 earnings report on November 20 drove a 6.5% stock rally, fueled by $179.5 billion in revenue (+5.8%) and a 27% surge in global e-commerce sales. Walmart is the primary beneficiary of the "trading down" phenomenon, where high-income consumers migrate to value. Crucially, its global advertising business grew 53%, providing a high-margin revenue stream that subsidizes lower shelf prices to crush competitors.

Costco (COST), conversely, fell 1.13%. This divergence was purely valuation-driven; trading at 40x+ earnings becomes mathematically difficult to justify against a 4.13% risk-free rate. Analyst price target cuts reflected a mechanical de-rating rather than operational weakness.

Healthcare benefitted from the GLP-1 "supercycle" and strategic M&A. Eli Lilly (LLY) continued its ascent, with investors valuing it as a "structural growth" asset due to its pipeline addressing downstream obesity effects like cardiovascular health. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) signaled a return to growth with its $3.05 billion acquisition of Halda Therapeutics, using its balance sheet to offset looming patent cliffs. UnitedHealth (UNH) faced headwinds from regulatory uncertainty regarding Medicare Advantage rates for 2026, exacerbated by the shutdown's disruption to government planning.

Energy and Industrials

This segment illustrated the sharp bifurcation of the U.S. economy: a robust energy production engine contrasted against a frozen, rate-sensitive housing market.

Home Depot (HD) served as the primary casualty of the rate environment. Earnings released on November 18 revealed a 5% cut to full-year EPS guidance. Management cited real estate turnover at 40-year lows, a result of the "lock-in" effect where homeowners with 3% mortgages refuse to sell, thereby obliterating the renovation cycle. The lack of major hurricane landfalls in Q3 further hurt comparable sales, leading to a 6% decline in the stock.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) demonstrated operational excellence, rising 1.15% mid-week despite soft WTI crude prices hovering near $60/bbl. XOM’s ability to lower breakeven prices through efficiencies in the Permian and Guyana attracted investors seeking "defensive energy"—exposure to energy security and dividends without the high beta of pure-play E&P firms.

We don’t take shortcuts, chase headlines, or push narratives. We just bring you the news, straight and fair. If you value that, click here to become a paid subscriber—your support makes all the difference.

Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️