In partnership with

Anna's Markets Recap

_{Just facts, you think for yourself}

Saturday, 5:14 AM

December 6, 2025

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

The Gmail app usually clips the bottom quarter of our emails, we recommend you reading our full article online here.

They know what legislation is coming before the ink is dry. Do you?

The average investor guesses. Congress members don't have to.

Last week, eight sitting members filed 35 specific trades.

One Representative executed 14 trades in just seven days. He sits on the Financial Services Committee.

A senior Senator moved nearly $250,000 in a single transaction.

Another bought a specific Bitcoin ETF right while Congress is debating digital currency rules.

These aren't accidents. They know what legislation is passing before the ink is dry.

You can’t sit in those closed-door committee meetings. But you can see exactly where they put their money immediately after.

We analyzed every trade from the week of Dec 6 to see who is buying the dip and who is hedging with your tax dollars.

Stop trading on yesterday's news.

[Link to Full Report]

What Moved Markets Last Week

The trading week of December 1 through December 5, 2025, stands as a distinct anomaly in modern financial history. Investors navigated a market environment defined not by the clarity of data, but by its conspicuous absence. The recent federal government shutdown created a "data fog," obscuring the typical navigational beacons of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. This void forced institutional capital to rely on imperfect proxies and private sector signals to triangulate the trajectory of the U.S. economy.

The market’s reaction function shifted fundamentally to a "bad news is good news" paradigm. Weakness in labor indicators was not priced as a recessionary signal, but rather as a guarantee of a liquidity injection. The narrative solidified: the Federal Reserve, blinded by the same data delays as the market, would be forced to cut rates on December 10 to insure against the unknown.

The ADP Shock: The release of the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday served as the primary volatility catalyst, shattering "soft landing" complacency. Private sector employment contracted by 32,000 jobs in November, defying expectations of a +10,000 to +25,000 gain. This marked the first significant contraction since spring 2023, with losses concentrated in small businesses and manufacturing. The market interpreted this as definitive evidence that the Fed has overtightened. Consequently, the implied probability of a rate cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting spiked from roughly 60% to over 90%.

The Inflation Lag: While labor flashed deflationary warning signs, the delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released Friday introduced a complicating variable: price stickiness. Core PCE remained entrenched at 2.8% year-over-year. In a vacuum, this "stagflation-lite" scenario (falling growth, sticky inflation) is hostile for equities. However, traders chose to look through the inflation data, focusing entirely on the labor contraction as the primary driver for immediate monetary easing.

Bond Volatility: The 10-year Treasury yield experienced a "round trip" week, initially piercing the 4.00% floor on recession fears before snapping back to settle at 4.14% on Friday. The curve remains inverted but is steepening from the front end—a classic signal that the market believes a recession is arriving, forcing the Fed to slash short-term rates faster than long-term expectations adjust.

Gold: The Ultimate Safe Haven Spot Gold broke resistance to trade near $4,220/oz. The convergence of the "Data Fog," the UNH assassination (social instability risk), and the ADP contraction (recession risk) created a perfect storm for the metal. Reports indicate a surge in physical gold shipments to COMEX vaults, suggesting a "run on the vaults" where smart money is demanding tangible possession over paper derivatives to hedge against systemic financial plumbing risks.

Tech and Growth

The Technology sector remains the battlefield for the "AI Hardware War," but the narrative shifted this week from software dominance to hardware commoditization and vertical integration. The shockwave from the release of the "DeepSeek" model continues to force a repricing of the semiconductor value chain.

Microsoft (MSFT): The Defensive Hedge Microsoft demonstrated ruthless pragmatism by announcing it would host DeepSeek R1 on its Azure AI Foundry platform. By offering both OpenAI and its low-cost rival, Microsoft ensures that Azure captures the compute revenue regardless of which model wins the "intelligence war." Investors rewarded this neutrality, viewing MSFT as an indispensable utility grid insulated from broader AI bubble fears.

Amazon (AMZN): Vertical Integration Breakout Amazon shares surged mid-week on two catalysts. First, AWS unveiled its proprietary Trainium 3 AI chip, which claims to be 50% cheaper and 4.4x faster for training than comparable Nvidia clusters—a direct assault on Nvidia's margin structure. Second, reports surfaced that Anthropic (heavily backed by Amazon) is preparing for a 2026 IPO at a valuation exceeding $300 billion. This creates a massive "sum-of-the-parts" valuation floor for Amazon, positioning it as a vertically integrated giant owning the cloud, the chip, and the model.

Nvidia (NVDA): Valuation Stress Test Nvidia stabilized to close at $182.32, holding critical technical support at $173. While the efficiency of DeepSeek and the rise of hyperscaler chips like Trainium 3 challenge its moat, Nvidia remains the industry's primary "arms dealer." Options flows indicated heavy put selling at the $170 level, suggesting institutional belief that the recent sell-off was a liquidity event rather than a fundamental exit.

Salesforce (CRM): The Agentforce Redemption Salesforce flipped the "AI kills SaaS" narrative with a strong Q3 beat (EPS $3.25 vs. $2.86 est). The company reported massive adoption of Agentforce, its autonomous AI agent platform. By monetizing the agents themselves ($2 per conversation), Salesforce proved that legacy software giants can successfully pivot to consumption-based pricing. The stock rose 1.7% on the news.

Netflix (NFLX) & Tesla (TSLA) Netflix fell ~3% after winning a bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) at ~$83 billion. The price action reflected a textbook "acquirer penalty" and arbitrage selling. Conversely, Tesla rose over 4% following the rollout of its Robotaxi fleet in Austin, decoupling from broader auto-sector weakness as the market priced in the "Cybercab" revenue stream as a near-term reality.

Did you know we also write in-depth deep dives? They are long, packed with insights, and have received rave reviews. If you’re up for a detailed, action-packed read, check this one out:

Banks and Financials

The Financials sector faced a "pincer movement" of headwinds: falling yields compressing net interest margins (NIM) and regulatory assaults on fee income.

The Net Interest Margin Squeeze As the 10-year Treasury yield collapsed from previous highs to ~4.14%, the "higher for longer" profitability engine for major banks began to sputter. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) saw muted performance. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon issued stark warnings about U.S. competitiveness and doubled down on return-to-office mandates, signaling a pivot toward operational efficiency in preparation for a leaner economic environment.

The Payments Duopoly Under Siege Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) faced significant valuation compression after reaching a settlement with U.S. merchants to lower interchange fees for the next five years, effectively capping pricing power. Simultaneously, a report showed Bitcoin settlement volume ($6.9 trillion) has reached parity with the card networks over the last 90 days. While crypto isn't replacing consumer transactions, it is encroaching on the high-value cross-border settlement market, forcing a re-rating of V and MA from "high-growth tech" to "regulated utility" multiples.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) Berkshire remained the ultimate defensive play. Amid the "Data Fog" and recession signals, BRK.B held steady. Buffett’s $300B+ cash pile is increasingly viewed as an option on distressed assets; if the economy rolls over as the ADP report suggests, Berkshire stands ready as the liquidity provider of last resort.

Consumer Goods and Healthcare

Costco (COST): The Growth Ceiling Costco reported November Net Sales growth of +8.1%, but comparable sales (+5.9%) missed the "whisper" number of +6.8%. Trading at a ~50x P/E, Costco is priced for perfection. The stock fell ~3%, interpreted by the market not as a company failure, but as a macro signal of consumer fatigue. If the high-end Costco shopper is pulling back, it bodes poorly for the broader holiday season.

Pharma Dynamics Eli Lilly (LLY) continued its offensive in the GLP-1 wars by releasing single-dose Zepbound vials. This strategic move allows Lilly to compete on price against the "compounding pharmacy" gray market without eroding the premium pricing of its auto-injector pens. Meanwhile, AbbVie (ABBV) presented at the Piper Sandler Conference, successfully pivoting its narrative from the "Humira cliff" to an immunology and oncology growth story, earning investor confidence in its diversification.

Energy and Industrials

Exxon Mobil (XOM): The Geopolitical Arb Reports surfaced that Exxon Mobil is eyeing the international assets of Lukoil ($22B value). If true, this represents a bold geopolitical arbitrage, betting that Exxon can navigate sanctions better than Russian entities to acquire assets at distressed "war valuations." With WTI Crude holding $59/barrel due to OPEC+ delays, XOM is positioned to pursue growth without fighting a collapsing commodity price.

Home Depot (HD) Despite dropping yields, Home Depot stock remains rangebound. The "lock-in effect"—where homeowners refuse to sell properties financed at 3% rates—continues to freeze existing home sales. Until rates drop significantly further to unlock housing turnover, the renovation volume that drives HD's business will remain stalled.

We don’t take shortcuts, chase headlines, or push narratives. We just bring you the news, straight and fair. If you value that, click here to become a paid subscriber—your support makes all the difference.

Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️