Anna's Markets Recap

_{Just facts, you think for yourself}

Saturday, 5:27 AM

November 29, 2025

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

The Gmail app usually clips the bottom quarter of our emails, we recommend you reading our full article online here.

The "November Signal": Why Four Lawmakers Just Moved Money While the Market Was Sleeping

While the markets were quiet for Thanksgiving, four politicians were busy moving money.

I just read the latest transaction reports. 48 trades total.

Here is what jumped out at me:

Senator McCormick made a strange "barbell" play. He bought boring municipal bonds that pay 5% until 2048. But in the same week, he bought Bitcoin.

Think about that. He is betting on 25 years of safety and crypto at the same time. What does he see coming for the dollar?

Then there is Senator Tina Smith. She sits on the Banking Committee. Her spouse just dumped a six-figure stake in a regional bank. When a banking insider sells a bank stock, I pay attention.

These folks see the laws before they pass. They aren't guessing.

Stop trading blind. We listed every single ticker, the dates, and the amounts in the full report.

[Link to Report]

What Moved Markets Last Week

The trading week concluding November 29, 2025, will likely be recorded in financial history as a period of profound structural bifurcation. Against a backdrop of conflicting macroeconomic signals—record-breaking digital consumption juxtaposed with plummeting consumer sentiment, and disinflationary progress clashing with fiscal dominance—US equity markets staged a ferocious, albeit narrow, rally. The major indices delivered their strongest weekly performance since mid-year, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite surging 4.9%. This performance was not merely a function of holiday-thinned liquidity but represented a fundamental repricing of the monetary policy trajectory. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average followed suit, gaining 3.7% and 3.2% respectively, driven by a distinct rotation back into long-duration growth assets and a defensive bid for healthcare monopolies.

The dominant driver of asset pricing during this holiday-shortened week was the resurrection of the "Fed Put." The pivotal moment arrived with comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who signaled openness to near-term rate adjustments. In the parlance of central banking, this was a green light for risk assets, signaling a shift from fighting inflation to preserving labor market stability. Markets aggressively repriced the probability of a December interest rate cut to nearly 85%, collapsing volatility in the Treasury market and anchoring the 10-year yield near 4.00%–4.01%. This stabilization created the favorable discount rate environment necessary for high-multiple equities.

Simultaneously, a profound disconnect emerged between consumer sentiment and consumer behavior. While the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index collapsed to a reading of 51.0—reminiscent of the 2022 inflationary shock—actual transactional data painted a picture of insatiable demand. Adobe Analytics reported that U.S. online spending on Black Friday reached $8.6 billion, a 9.4% year-over-year increase. This paradox highlights a "K-Shaped" reality where the top earners, buoyed by record asset prices, continue to spend, while the broader sentiment is dragged down by sticky inflation and income stress. This divergence poses the single greatest risk to the consensus bullish thesis for 2026.

Perhaps the most alarming signal for long-term risk managers this week was the price action in Gold. The yellow metal solidified its trade above the psychological $4,000/oz level. In a functioning "risk-on" equity environment—like the one seen in the Nasdaq this week—gold typically retreats. Its concurrent rally suggests deep-seated institutional fears regarding US fiscal sustainability.

The rally is driven by "debt debasement" fears. With US deficits remaining high, the market anticipates that the Treasury will eventually need to monetize debt, devaluing the dollar. Furthermore, the "BRICS bid" remains relentless, with Eastern central banks systematically swapping US Treasuries for Gold to sanction-proof their reserves. The simultaneous rally of Stocks (risk-on) and Gold (risk-off) is highly abnormal and typically occurs at the end of a monetary cycle, signaling a market fueled by liquidity injection rather than pure economic fundamentals.

Tech and Growth

The Technology sector remained the engine of the US equity market, gaining 4.9% on the week. However, the internal dynamics are shifting from a monolithic "AI trade" to a nuanced battle between hardware incumbents, custom silicon disruptors, and the application layer.

Nvidia (NVDA), the undisputed king of the AI cycle, showed rare signs of vulnerability, falling approximately 2.6% mid-week. The decline was triggered by reports that Meta Platforms is considering utilizing Google’s custom AI chips for its data centers instead of relying exclusively on Nvidia’s GPUs. This confirms the long-feared "Hyperscaler Diversification" thesis, where major buyers actively fund the disruption of Nvidia's moat. Conversely, Broadcom (AVGO) surged 11% as the primary beneficiary of this trend, helping hyperscalers design these custom ASICs. The trade appears to be rotating from "Long Nvidia" to "Long Custom Silicon Ecosystem."

In the software layer, Alphabet (GOOGL) defined the week with the release of "Gemini 3," sending shares up over 6%. This release is perceived as closing the capability gap with OpenAI, alleviating the "terminal risk" discount that has plagued Google for two years. Microsoft (MSFT) also rallied toward $490, catalyzed by regulatory relief in the EU and the validation of its massive infrastructure spend through robust Azure growth.

Consumer hardware also saw a resurgence, with Apple (AAPL) reclaiming its position as the second-largest company by market cap. Reports indicate strong demand for the iPhone 17 cycle, suggesting the "AI Supercycle" thesis is playing out. The requirement for newer chipsets to run Apple Intelligence is forcing a hardware upgrade cycle among the massive installed base, driving obsolescence—the most powerful lever in consumer tech.

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Banks and Financials

The Financials sector is currently enjoying a "Goldilocks" environment: interest rates are high enough to support Net Interest Margins (NIM), but the economy is strong enough to prevent a wave of loan defaults.

JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) traded as proxies for the yield curve this week. As the 10-year yield stabilized at 4% and expectations for a Fed cut solidified, the yield curve began to "un-invert" or steepen. This benefits universal banks by expanding the spread between what they pay on deposits and what they earn on loans. Furthermore, both banks are capitalizing on a surge in fixed-income trading volumes, as volatility in rate expectations drives massive hedging activity by corporate clients. Bank of America specifically is seeing its massive unrealized bond losses become less of a drag on book value as yields stabilize.

In the payments space, Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) remain the ultimate inflation hedges. The record $8.6 billion online spend on Black Friday flows directly through their rails, allowing them to capture a percentage of nominal value regardless of inflationary pressures. Strategically, Visa made a critical defensive move by partnering with Aquanow to scale stablecoin settlements across EMEA, attempting to bridge TradFi and DeFi and co-opt the threat of blockchain-based settlement.

Consumer Goods and Healthcare

This sector provided the week's most significant historic milestone and arguably the most important long-term investment theme. Eli Lilly (LLY) shattered the pharmaceutical glass ceiling, becoming the first company in the sector to surpass a $1 trillion market capitalization. This underscores the "GLP-1 Supercycle," where drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound have transitioned from medicines to consumer staples. Lilly raised its 2025 revenue guidance, indicating easing supply constraints, while positive Phase 3 results for its oral candidate, orforglipron, suggest a future expansion of the Total Addressable Market from millions to billions.

Beyond the weight-loss narrative, the sector saw a classic defensive rotation. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) rallied 4.45% on Friday as portfolio managers rotated capital from high-beta tech into cash-flow machines with low correlation to the economic cycle.

In retail, a clear bifurcation is evident. Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST) are winning the war for the consumer wallet. The collapse in consumer sentiment explains Walmart's strength; as consumers feel poorer, they trade down from department stores to Walmart, which exerts pressure on suppliers to maintain low prices. Costco continues to serve as the perfect hedge for the K-shaped economy, appealing to the upper-middle class's desire for value hunting.

Energy and Industrials

The Energy and Industrial sectors offered a study in contrasts, highlighting the difference between operational efficiency and interest rate sensitivity.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is defying the gravitational pull of lower oil prices. Despite Brent crude languishing in the mid-$60s, Exxon delivered a stunning $7.5 billion in earnings. The key driver is operational alpha: massive investments in Guyana and the Permian Basin are producing record volumes at rock-bottom costs. By utilizing proprietary technologies to boost well recovery rates, Exxon has effectively decoupled its stock performance from the underlying commodity, allowing it to return $9.4 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks this quarter.

Conversely, Home Depot (HD) remains the "sick man" of the large-cap indices. Despite beating Q3 earnings estimates, the stock hovers near 52-week lows. Home Depot is currently trapped by the frozen housing market; with mortgage rates locking in current homeowners, existing home sales have stalled. Without the catalyst of people moving, large-scale renovation projects are being deferred. Until the Fed cuts rates aggressively enough to unfreeze the mortgage market, HD remains a value trap, guiding for a 5% decline in full-year EPS.

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Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️