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Anna's Markets Recap

_{Just facts, you think for yourself}

Saturday, 5:19 AM

October 18, 2025

Good morning news friend! Here is a quick recap of what happened in the markets this week. 📰🌟

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What Moved Markets Last Week

The U.S. equity markets navigated a week of sharp reversals, ultimately closing with modest gains amidst significant uncertainty. An early rally, driven by a softer tone on U.S.-China trade relations, gave way to a mid-week slump as fears resurfaced over the health of regional bank credit and persistent trade tensions. A final rebound on Friday capped a volatile period, with the Nasdaq Composite adding 2.1%, the S&P 500 rising 1.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 1.6%.

A key factor driving uncertainty was a "data drought" caused by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which delayed the release of critical economic indicators, including the September CPI, PPI, and retail sales reports. This vacuum of official data clouded the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, though futures markets continued to price in a 100% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the October meeting. Market anxiety was reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which jumped to its highest close since June. In response, investors sought safe-haven assets, pushing the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note briefly below 4.00% for the first time in over a year.

Gold prices surged to a new record, peaking at approximately $4,379 per ounce before closing the week around $4,342. The rally was fueled by a convergence of factors, including the escalating trade war, the U.S. government shutdown, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and strong buying from central banks. In contrast, crude oil prices fell, with WTI and Brent benchmarks declining on concerns of oversupply and weakening global demand.

Tech and Growth

The technology sector was dominated by an intensifying AI arms race, which provided a powerful counter-narrative to macroeconomic concerns. Broadcom (AVGO) shares soared after announcing a landmark partnership to co-design and supply custom AI chips for OpenAI. NVIDIA (NVDA) began shipping its DGX Spark "AI supercomputer" and secured deals with Meta and Oracle for its Spectrum-X networking hardware, though its stock was weighed down by broader concerns over the semiconductor supply chain.

Other major players solidified their positions. Microsoft (MSFT) announced a ~$14 billion deal with startup Nscale to deploy 200,000 NVIDIA GPUs for its Azure cloud services. Alphabet (GOOGL) revealed a $9 billion investment in its data centers and expanded its AI partnership with Salesforce, leading to a strong weekly stock performance. Apple (AAPL) entered the AI hardware conversation with its new M5 chip, which it touted as a "big leap in AI performance," lifting its stock. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) faced scrutiny from investors and regulators regarding its autonomous driving timelines, causing its stock to decline.

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Banks and Financials

The financial sector witnessed a stark divergence. Large money-center banks reported strong third-quarter results, while regional banks faced a sudden crisis of confidence. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) both beat earnings and revenue forecasts, fueled by significant growth in investment banking fees. Despite its strong report, JPM’s stock fell on cautious executive commentary, whereas BAC’s shares climbed.

The regional banking sector was shaken on Thursday after Zions Bancorporation (ZION) announced a $50 million charge-off, sparking contagion fears that sent its stock and that of peers like Western Alliance (WAL) sharply lower. The SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) dropped 6%. However, the sector staged a sharp recovery on Friday after analyst commentary framed the issues as idiosyncratic rather than systemic. Separately, American Express (AXP) shares surged 7.3% after beating quarterly estimates, citing robust spending among its affluent clientele.

Consumer Goods and Healthcare

Defensive sectors navigated a mix of company-specific catalysts and political headwinds. Eli Lilly (LLY) shares were volatile, dropping nearly 4% on Friday after President Trump pledged to pursue lower prices for popular weight-loss drugs. This overshadowed positive clinical trial data for its diabetes and breast cancer treatments. AbbVie (ABBV) received expanded FDA approval for its drug Rinvoq and acquired a novel psychedelic compound for treating depression.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported strong Q3 earnings that beat expectations, driven by key drugs in its Innovative Medicine unit. In the retail space, Walmart (WMT) announced a significant partnership with OpenAI to enable shopping directly through ChatGPT, a move that was met with a positive stock reaction.

Energy and Industrials

Companies tied to the physical economy contended with falling commodity prices and uncertainty around global demand. The energy sector, including Exxon Mobil (XOM), faced headwinds as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to around $57 per barrel. The price drop was attributed to fears of a global supply glut and weakening demand linked to the U.S.-China trade dispute, causing the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) to fall 2.9% on Friday. Elsewhere, Home Depot (HD) awaited key housing market data, which was delayed by the government shutdown, leaving its stock to trade in line with broader market volatility.

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Baked with love,

Anna Eisenberg ❤️